2012 is not ‘72 or ‘96. Comparing Palin to Dole is laughable in my humble opinion. I think she will be a very effective campaigner and we haven’t seen anything yet.
The reason my support has continued for Sarah is that I have seen a definite growth already in her articulation and it hasn’t even been a year. I have gotten flamed before for saying she is not ready yet but I say that as someone who strongly believes she will be. I have my criticisms of her, she needs to get more creative and expand her rhetoric and she needs to stop responding to idiots like Letterman. But she has a huge built in following, has solid accomplishements and has integrity. No other (as of yet) republican has a chance against Obama the way it looks now. 10 million votes is a lot, but electorally it wasn’t as big a disaster as it should have been. I mean, leaving the campaign trail to rush back to DC to just bend over on tarp? That was a Muskie moment.
Respectfully, to be an effective campaigner means that you have to be able to articulate ideas and philosophies and policy positions in a compelling manner. Now, she speaks in a way that is welcomed by people who already agree with her, but she has yet to demonstrate any ability to convince people that aren't already inclined to her politics to move in her direction - at least not in any measurable numbers.
As for her improving, I wish that I saw some some improvement. That "speech" she gave on July 3, was amateurish at best. It was very poorly written and rambled, sometimes haplessly. Her delivery wasn't much better when, at moments, she breathlessly raced ahead of her emphasis points and appeared to be making it up as she went along - although we know now that wasn't the case.
Palin does have something, as others are so eager to point out. But, that "something" has to be met with an earnest effort to hone, deepen and improve her abilities to answer detailed, complicated and probative questions on her policy positions. She also has to demonstrate that she'll surround herself with the best political pros available, and be willing to take their advice. That's what I'll be looking for moving forward. Without significantly improved communication skills, policy awareness and media management, she's done - at least for the foreseeable future - as a national political hopeful.