Sea level rise: It's worse than we thought

New Scientist ^ | 01 July 2009 | Anil Ananthaswamy

[Lorianne]

In its 2007 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) forecast a sea level rise of between 19 and 59 centimetres by 2100, but this excluded "future rapid dynamical changes in ice flow".

"Larger rises cannot be excluded but understanding of these effects is too limited to assess their likelihood," the IPCC report stated.

Even before it was released, the report was outdated. Researchers now know far more. And while we still don't understand the dynamics of ice sheets and glaciers well enough to make precise predictions, we are narrowing down the possibilities. The good news is that some of the scarier scenarios, such as a sudden collapse of the Greenland ice sheet, now appear less likely. The bad news is that there is a growing consensus that the IPCC estimates are wildly optimistic.

Even if all emissions stopped today, sea level would continue to rise. "The current rate of rise would continue for centuries if temperatures are constant, and that would add about 30 centimetres per century to global sea level,"

"If we burn all fossil fuels, we are likely to end up with many metres of sea level rise in the long run, very likely more than 10 metres in my view."

This might sound dramatic, but we know sea level has swung from 120 metres lower than today during ice ages to more than 70 metres higher during hot periods. There is no doubt at all that if the planet warms, the sea will rise. The key questions are, by how much and how soon?

[BikerJoe]

And we also have the issue of Teutonic plate movements

We use my German grandmother's Teutonic plates every Thanksgiving, the plate movements continue until the plates are loaded to capacity.

[driftless2]

I think you mean teCtonic not teutonic. I won’t hold millions of fat Germans responsible for this gw thing.

[Lorianne]

link?

[arrogantsob]

I knew I could find the answer at Free Republic.

[driftless2]

I’m lousy at computer technology. But if you go to CFP.com. they probably have the article by Professor Ball on archive.

[driftless2]

that’s Canadafreepress.com.

[Woodman]

Even 10 metres would be over 7,000,000 cubic miles of melted ice by my calculations. I would love to have someone estimate how much solid water is locked up above sea-level on this planet.

[Straight Vermonter]

The biggest joke of all is that they haven’t even measured any appreciable rise in sea levels yet.