Well, another one of Sarah’s oppnents goes down the tubers.
Next, we find out that Mitt’s hairpiece is phony.
Jesus, they’re falling like tenpins.
No. This is really pathetic. Especially watching him hide behind the Bible. You don’t go into Republican Politics if you can’t hide John Thomas in your pants. You don’t cheat on the Mrs. You just don’t. If you do, the D’s will find out about it and kill you.
STUPID, STUPID, STUPID.
So, I wonder how much Rahm paid the girl to flip on him?
Best,
Chris
Chris, what’s with taking the Lord’s name in vain. The name might not mean anything to you, but it does to me, so please stop!
at least Letterman has some other Republican to make some jokes about for a while..
This is a big deal though as I had thought he was the favorite for 2012. He was a lock in SC, the state that always holds the key to the nomination.
Now, he’s out. It looks like it’ll come down to Romney, Huckabee, Pawlenty, and Palin. I don’t see anyone in the Senate running(McCain and Dole didn’t exactly work out with that route). Guys from the House simply don’t get it. So, it’s pretty much Governors, unless some outside figure like a Petraeus or Eisenhower or taht caliber runs.
It would seem that Huckabee will have the edge initially in IA and SC, and Romney in NH. Huckabee already won IA with basically no money and no recognition. Now, he’ll have both.
IA was 60% evangelical in 08. Now, if Huckabee doesn’t run, I think that opens things up for Palin a bit.
Romney will be the choice of the establishment and the east coast wing along with beltway conservatives. Unlike last time, they’ll get behind him much earlier.
Of course his downside is that 20,000 people won’t show up in a town that no one’s ever heard of in a state that hasn’t come close to going GOP since Reagan in 84 to see him walk down the street and say a few words about a state 4000 miles away.
In 08 IA was 56% male and 44% female. Palin’s strategy has to be to get a majority of women and she wins easily, even if she gets 40% she has a very good shot.
That’s how Hillary beat Obama in NH and OH and PA and TX and all those states. She owned the female vote at a 60%+ clip. Ironically, she LOST the female vote in IA to Obama. If she had worked harder on them and won them, she beats Obama in IA, and NH, and his campaign is finished by the end of the first week. I bet she has trouble sleeping at night when she thinks that all she had to do was get 40% of women in IA and she would have been President and she didn’t do it.
Now, IA has never elected a woman Sneator or Governor, so that would seem to be a problem. But the 60% evangelical would be a plus for Palin. So, her campaign would seem similar to Obama’s. She has to win in IA and that win pretty much sets the table for all that follows. IF she loses there, she’s in big trouble as Romney would win in NH and then she won’t have won any of the first two and taht pretty much ends things.
So, given a 60% evangelical base to start out with, a state where personal politics and retail politics matters, where a lot of money can go a long way, a state more rural and in tune with the “common man(or woman)”, a state that is mostly conservative and has few moderates or liberals or independents(only 12% in 08), there’d seem to be a big opening for her.
Huckabee is a key. If he runs and splits the evangelical vote, she’s in trouble. If he stays out, it’s all hers and she she should be in very good shape.
But the key will be for her to mine that female vote. If she can do that, perhaps even get some Clinton supporters to maybe switch registration and back her to bump the totals, she’ll be ok.
It was 56-44 male in 08. Interestingly, for the dems, it was the exact opposite at 57-43 female. Hillary only got 30% of the female vote to Obama’s 35%, her worst performance among women in any state. If she had gotten 40%+ she wins the caucus and is the President.
So, if Palin can get that 56-44 to say, even 54-46 and clear 40% of the female vote, she should win. She’ll be able to learn from Clinton’s mistake and focus on a target that should be workable. Given everything she has going for her and a whole 6 months plus to work on that assuming she announces no later than summer 2011, it would seem doable.
She wins IA and I think the train leaves the station as it did with Obama and the momentum is just too strong to overcome.
The other thing is that the media will realize that an Obama-Palin campaign will give them some of their highest ratings ever, not just for politics but likely overall TV as well. The debates would be like having 3 Super Bowls in 3 weeks. The convention would be a 4th. So they will push tha tto the hilt.
But Sanford being out and opening up SC clears a bunch of things up.