Oil’s not going to get to $250 unless the economy fully recovers from the current recession. And given that the current recession (a GDP contraction of maybe a few percentage points) was able to bring it down more than 50%, I can’t imagine a return to high prices could do more than a few percentage points worth of damage.
Oil at $140 is a large part of what tanked the auto industry.
I would agree with you 100%, if not for the rebound that oil has enjoyed the last 8(ish) weeks, for no good reason. There isn't any fundamental good news about the US economy, or even the world economy. You could maybe argue the case that the decline as slowed and were at or near the bottom. But, I think that would be a big maybe.
At the risk of using a terribly cliche phrase, we truly are in a new paradigm. I still don't think that a full and complete accounting why the energy prices spiked with such sharpness last year has been given. It had to be an artificial spike, which makes me question if the lows we were at recently, and perhaps even the price were at now is artificial as well.
If the decline in the world's economy has slowed because of artificially low energy prices, what happens when market realities eventually set in? Will the slowdown re-accelerate?