As someone pointed out in an earlier post, the o-ring failure was not a unique or new phenomenon to the Challenger. Not only was NASA aware of it, but they also recognized the potential for catastrophic failure because of it.
Additionally, a "rifle-shot" placed exactly at the o-ring seam would be THE rifle shot in the history of rifle shots. I don't know if you've ever been to the Kennedy Space Center, but the closest one can get is about a mile. I don't think Carlos Hathcock could make that shot.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but you used to be able to get a lot closer, until after the Challenger.
Not anymore obviously, but when he was in his prime, I wouldn't have bet against it.