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Now let's consider each current Justice of the United States Supreme Court and how likely they are to vacate the court at some point before January 20, 2017. Note that no Justices will celebrate birthdays between now and Inauguration Day, so all ages currently listed will be the same when President Bush leaves office.
JUSTICE JOHN PAUL STEVENS -- AGE 88
Justice Stevens is a healthy and vigorous 88 years old, but he is still at that age when things can go downhill rapidly. I suspect that if McCain should win the Presidency, Stevens will give it a good go at waiting until 2013, and I think he'd have a decent shot at accomplishing just that. But if Senator Obama wins this race, Justice Stevens will almost certainly call it a career. It seems extremely unlikely that John Paul Stevens will serve through the next two Presidential terms.
Odds of vacating before January 20, 2013: 90%
Odds of vacating before January 20, 2017: 98%
JUSTICE RUTH BADER GINSBURG -- AGE 75
One of the liberal wing's stalwarts, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is the second-oldest member of the Court. At 75 she is a nine-year survivor of colo-rectal cancer. While currently in good health, she has already reached the age at which half of Justices retire. One should not be surprised to see her retire in the first term of an Obama administration, though continued good health and a popular President Obama three years from now could well create a situation where she chooses to remain for another three or four years, confident that a Democrat will hold the Presidency during that time.
Odds of vacating before January 20, 2013: 65%
Odds of vacating before January 20, 2017: 85%
JUSTICE ANTONIN SCALIA -- AGE 72
In the next eight years Justice Antonin Scalia will pass the average and median ages of retiring Justices. However, if his temperment is any reflection on his constitution, Scalia may have well more than eight more years in him as a Justice. Personally, I tend to think that his contrarian nature indicates that he'll be serving as long as is reasonably possible even to the point where I suspect he doesn't concern himself with who might be in the Oval Office when and if he does comtemplate retirement.
Odds of vacating before January 20, 2013: 30%
Odds of vacating before January 20, 2017: 65%
JUSTICE ANTHONY KENNEDY -- AGE 72
Justice Kennedy currently occupies the position of the Court's swing vote, periodically enraging both the left and the right, depending on the decision. Like Scalia, he has now sat on the USSC for over two decades, and though he does not seem to intensely relish his position to the extent that Justice Scalia does, that impression may only be due to their comparative personalities. I suspect Kennedy is more likely to step down if another vacancy changes the makeup of the Supreme Court such that he is no longer the swing vote between equal-strength ideological blocs.
Odds of vacating before January 20, 2013: 35%
Odds of vacating before January 20, 2017: 70%
JUSTICE STEPHEN BREYER -- AGE 70
I believe Justice Breyer is of an age and health that gives him realistic hope of serving on a United States Supreme Court with a liberal majority, and for that reason I think he is more likely than not to remain on the court beyond the next two Presidential terms. Breyer may look forward to a day when he is in his late 70s, when Justices Stevens and Ginsburg and perhaps Souter have stepped down in favor of younger liberal Justices, and when Justice Kennedy and perhaps a conservative Justice have also been replaced with younger liberals. Justice Breyer would then sit as the elder Justice of the High Court's liberal majority.
Odds of vacating before January 20, 2013: 15%
Odds of vacating before January 20, 2017: 40%
JUSTICE DAVID SOUTER -- AGE 69
Though still shy of 70, Justice Souter is a likely candidate for an early retirement. He reportedly strongly considered it in the wake of the Bush v. Gore ruling, which he considers an absolutely travesty. Further, his love of his New Hampshire home is matched by his dislike of Washington, DC. I imagine he'd gut out a McCain Administration, not expecting the country to vote for a fourth consecutive GOP term as President, but if Obama is elected I think Justice Souter will step down as soon as convenient, though quite possibly allowing Stevens and perhaps Ginsburg to do so first.
Odds of vacating before January 20, 2013: 50%
Odds of vacating before January 20, 2017: 80%
JUSTICE CLARENCE THOMAS -- AGE 60
Justice Thomas' legal career has often been a bitter one and judging from recent publications he remains a bitter man. Though only 60, he's been on the USSC for almost 17 years, and promises to be on for many more. Even more so than Scalia, I think, Clarence Thomas is determined to soldier on through decade after coming decade. How his bitterness affects his aging remains to be seen. Perhaps he'll come to some terms with his situation and that will change his outlook; this could only help his health. But I foresee continuing years of silent defiance of his detractors as he sits on the High Court.
Odds of vacating before January 20, 2013: 15%
Odds of vacating before January 20, 2017: 30%
JUSTICE SAMUEL ALITO -- AGE 58
There's not much to speculate with the Court's newest Justice. At only 58 years of age and in fine health, Samuel Alito looks to be around for the foreseeable future, likely well beyond the next eight years.
Odds of vacating before January 20, 2013: 10%
Odds of vacating before January 20, 2017: 20%
CHIEF JUSTICE JOHN ROBERTS -- AGE 53
The Chief Justice is the youngest of them all. One would expect him to spend at least another dozen or 15 years on the Supreme Court. At this point he could retire at a relatively young age while still having made an impact as Chief Justice. On the other hand, 25 or 30 years down the road the USSC might still be the Roberts Court. At any rate, it would take something unforeseen to see him exiting the seen before 2017.
Odds of vacating before January 20, 2013: 5%
Odds of vacating before January 20, 2017: 10%
To simplify the analysis a bit, I'd like to break down the current Justices of the United States Supreme Court into four groups based on general similarities in alignment and likelihood of a vacating their seats between January 20, 2009 and January 20, 2017.
Thanks!