“Also total collapse will not happen as the USA holds the winning cards in the global economy. The only way to take those cards away is to defeat her militarily.”
I could not disagree with you more strongly. I would recommend reading a book called “Three Billion New Capitalists - The great shift of wealth and power to the east”. Its author, Clyde Prestowitz, makes the case that a unique set of circumstances enabled the USA to achieve by far the highest standard of living on the planet in the second half of the 20th century. Those factors are fading in importance and have been doing so for some time now.
Most students of globalization understand that China’s economic growth has just begun and that their economy will be as large as ours within the next couple of decades. Cysco, for example, expects China to be at the center of information technology between 2020 and 2040 and they are making plans to be a Chinese company by that time. Intel’s chairman has said that globalization is not a threat to his company, since they will move their manufacturing and R&D wherever they have to in order to remain globally competitive, but as a grandfather and a US citizen, he does worry about what his children will be doing to earn a living.
In spite of two world wars, the Great Depression and several lesser economic and military challenges, the US economy grew by about 21 times during the 20th century. Most serious students of globalization believe that the Chinese economy is poised for a similar expansion during this century.
The prevailing notion in the US is that Americans are entitled to, as a birthright, the highest standard of living on the planet. When our economic superiority goes, so will our military superiority. Americans are in for a rude awakening during this century.
There are several other very good books on globalization that I highly recommend:
The Chinese Century ........ Dr Oded Shenkar
The Rising Chinese Economy and its Impact on the global economy, the balance of power and your job
China, Inc .......... Ted Fishman
How the Rise of the Next Superpower Challenges America and the World
The World is Flat .......... Thomas Friedman
A Brief History of the 21st Century
Friedman identifies 10 “flatteners” and argues strongly that it is the cumulative effect of these factors which is causing such a rapid and dramatic shift in the global marketplace. By the time globalization has run its course, it will be recognized as one of the great transformational changes in world history, comparable to the Industrial Revolution and similar tectonic shifts.
The pity is that few Americans are aware of the magnitude of the challenge that we face and therefore do not demand that their elected leaders put global competitiveness at the top of our public policy priorities.
Phil,
Yes there will be ‘tribulations’ but there will be no ‘total’ collapse.
We have enough nukes and missiles to destroy any enemy militarily, everyone knows this. One can argue if there is a will to use them, but any attack that rivals or exceeds 9-11 will cause Americans to do whatever is necessary, and that includes the consideration of using nuclear weapons.
For the enemies we have within, we have the US Constitution. It is designed to make it exceedlingly difficult for any tyrant to rule the American people.
As for your references, all of them are based on offshoring of American technology and the equipping of competitors with the means to be economic powers. And you should know that the root cause of this transfer lies within the insane US tax code. And you should know further that the FairTax will reverse this shift and transfer of power.
Phil, I have a PhD in statistics so I am no stranger to high level analysis in whatever field. I also have experience in the highest levels of Washington DC as well as exposure to high ranking military discussions. So I think it is safe to say I have seen it all, just about. And that which I have not seen such as the recent banking and Wall St shenanigans, I am quick to grasp who the culprits are and what the elements of causation are.
I do not read books by people that write on political subject matters that are just a rehash of their experience in some think tank or some foundation or some policy experience in Wash DC.
Such writings impart no NEW information, or NEW intelligence to ME. They may impart to others, but not to me. I usually am at the ‘giving’ end of NEW information rather than the receiving.
Unless you think Prestowitz has some UNIQUE NEW information other than a rear view mirror of history and a speculative projection from it, then I won’t waste my time.
As for China, they have so many problems in their culture it is difficult to project anything about their future. Their markets will always in our lifetime and beyond be dependent on the USA and the West. They will grow their tech infrastructure, they will expand their military presence, they will try to inhabit other parts of the globe such as the Carribean. But they will never have the checks and balances that the Constitution provides Americans. Hence, they will never have the liberating innovative civilization underpinnings. They will always copy copy copy. And what they invent on their own, US scientists will quickly figure out, just as it was in the era of the USSR.
But if you insist that Prestowitz needs to be read, I will have a look. But make sure first that it will not waste my time.