This outbreak just started. Incubation period has to resonate with travel of those infected & contagious but not yet symptomatic, which runs a couple weeks. Apparently flu strains have to cycle thru the population twice before REALLY causing damage.
The real squaring point this early on is the victims are mostly healthy youth - not weak-immune-system children and elderly as is the usual body count. Apparently this one’s main mechanism involves turning one’s immune system against the body, meaning robust immune systems strike hard while weak ones don’t.
Wait 6 months, THEN compare victim counts. ...if you’re still around.
Lots of rumors out there...we are trying to track down several unconfirmed cases birdies at hospitals told us about. Just crazy out there. Let’s hope this stays very mild.
This is a key point, but also a question as to its truth. My first efforts seem to show that it tracks back to a possibly casual statement from a purported Mexican official. Our first reported death was a toddler -- most "confirmed" cases in the US seem to be in travelers from Mexico, none of whom, so far, seem to be life-threatening, or even in terribly serious condition.
I also notice that some accounts seem to say that the alleged "Ground Zero" in Mexico has no deaths.
The truth is that we just don't know enough yet to be terribly confident, though most of the reports lean to the less alarming side.
What would really start to worry me would be any of:
1. solid reports of a death within a few days of first symptoms;
2. quick contamination within a family where other get sick right after someone comes back from Mexico;
3. Actual rapid spread through a group or school. That is, as I read the first accounts, only 8 or so of some 80 at the New York school who had "flu" turned out to have the H1N1, and all of those had been to Mexico. If those "facts" aren't right, it would be more concerning.
CDC's field researchers are actually very good at this stuff, and i am sure are right now all over questions of who got it and who didn't from being in Mexico -- what type of "flu" do presenters have, etc. I'd be interested, but not overwrought, as of now.
“Apparently this one’s main mechanism involves turning one’s immune system against the body, meaning robust immune systems strike hard while weak ones don’t.”
I’m curious, any information on how the course of the disease differs in those of us with autoimmune disorders? Given that in autoimmune disorders the immune system is already attacking parts of the body, would swine flu make that worse? Or would it not be as severe?
Or is it still too early to make a guess?