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Redone at your request! The following is from a TRAINING EXERCISE done in Maricopa County AZ for Pandemic Preparedness in 2007. Please forgive the formatting issues and if someone can fix that I would appreciate it.

The information will be made available to the public through the CCC website, at www.coyotecampaign.org. THIS HIGHLIGHTS WHAT THE EXPERTS ARE CONCERNED ABOUT "The most beneficial advice that can be offered from the Coyote Crisis Campaign is that organizations cannot wait for funding to drive planning.

Whether the pandemic flu hits soon, or next year, or the next, it is – according to all experts – “coming.” Organizations must be creating plans, considering in particular contingency management; succession plans; communications with employees, constituencies, patients, clients, customers; and decisions about actions that must be taken during different phases of the pandemic flu. Pandemic flu will affect all of us – at home and at the office – and we must be prepared for the impact upon both fronts."

EXCERPT FROM THE REPORT BELOW "One of the resources that have proven instrumental to planning has been an algorithm provided through MathEcology, a company that has been contracted to generate forecasts of labor shortages/bed capacity use for the CDC and the Department of Defense.

Through relationships with the military, CCC was able to gain authorization to use the algorithm, and MathEcology – now a participant in CCC – generously offered to conduct customized predictions based on stakeholder characteristics.

The information is based on specific assumptions, derived from the CDC and altered for particular high risk factors that may be prevalent in some organizations, such as higher rates of labor shortages in hospitals due to heightened exposure to infected populations. Assumptions utilized by the CCC are: 􀂃 30 percent infection rate for the general population 􀂃 40 percent infection rate for school-aged children 􀂃 20 percent infection rate for working adults 􀂃 2.5 percent mortality rate of those infected 􀂃 40 percent of labor force will not be at work 􀂃 6-week epidemic “waves” Another resource that has proven to be highly beneficial for planning is the Washington, D. C. based National Guard Bureau’s drill planning video that describes a hypothetical move of the pandemic flu into the southwestern part of the country.

Using the theoretical scenario, a ship carrying various breeds 5 of poultry is traveling from Asia to Brazil, infecting crewmembers. From Brazil, the infection spreads to Mexico and across the Arizona border. Based on the World Health Organization’s phases of pandemic flu, CCC organizations are asked to consider the elements of their pandemic flu plans to be enacted during four stages of flu progression: • In March 2007, CCC is in Phase 5 (Continuing Pandemic Alert Period). There are large clusters of human to human transmissions and the virus is becoming better adapted to humans. There are 300 dead in South America and cases reported in Mexico.

• A few weeks later, CCC remains in Phase 5. There have been 1,000 deaths in Mexico. • A few weeks later, CCC is in Phase 6 (Pandemic Period), with the first wave of pandemic flu. • During Coyote Week, CCC is experiencing its second wave of the pandemic flu. CCC exercise planning occurs through the Planning Cell and the Executive Committee.