It will take a while, but I think that you are right. All investment in oil exploration/development (both here in North America and overseas has come to a halt. Sooner or later that will lead to tight oil supplies and higher oil prices.
The industry has slowed down but certainly not come to a halt.
ExxonMobil to Invest at Record Levels to Meet Future Energy Demand
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/exxonmobil/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&ndmConfigId=1001106&newsId=20090305005601&newsLang=en
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) today announced plans to invest at record levels — between $25 billion and $30 billion annually over the next five years — to meet expected long-term growth in world energy demand.
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March 2009 strategy update: building new heartlands, managing recession challenges
http://www.shell.com/home/content/media/news_and_library/press_releases/2009/2009_strategy_update_17032009.html
As part of its annual review of strategy, Shell said it is continuing with plans to build new upstream and downstream capacity, while managing the near-term challenges of the global economic slowdown.