The civil war states demonstrated how NOT to secede(ie. attacking Fort Sumter). The main problem with the first secession in my opinion was failing to gain or rather maintain northern sympathy and ambivalence.
Today, if this were to be tried again, a good public relations battle will have to be fought - the states seceding must appear as victims in the public eye rather than provocateurs.
One also must consider that differing demographics today as well. The states in my opinion are much more homogeneous in their divisions than they once were. Sure there were always southern and northern sympathizers on both sides of the battle lines, but today blue states as well as red states are sometimes nearly equally divided amongst both sides of the issues. It’s almost as if it’s a red county (rural usually) vs. blue county issue. But even many counties are split 50/50. It’s a very dicey situation.
This is a cultural conflict and secession would only be a partial answer to resolution. Eventually mass migrations of people would have to take place.
Looking at a possible solution to this whole mess we find ourselves in today is difficult. I’m not so sure there is an answer. The culture war appears to be unwinnable and the only thing that can save it is a return to family values - a return to God. That will require a miracle.
Brandan
Yes. But I think the main difference is that I don't see the political will from the remainder of the Union to do what it takes to stop a secession, which is war. I find it hard to believe that San Francisco hippies are going to be willing to enlist and go kill Texans so Texas can come back as part of the Union. I suspect most of the liberals would be more than happy to see Texas go, and I think few of the ones less than happy would be willing to die for Texas to rejoin the country.
This is an interesting discussion for me but, ultimately, I think seccession is ridiculous. If this nation were to actually fragment, it would all collapse. I’m talking anarchy.
Besides, there is an interesting lesson in the Harry Turtledove books where we are fighting WWI, e3xcept the south had won the Civil war, and after the civil war, the British and French sided with the CSA and the Germans sided with the USA. What did this mean for WWI? It meant there were TWO american fronts: One between the USA and CSA and another betweeen the USA and Candada.
If this country were to split, there would literally be hell to pay, and it would be paid in blood - lots of it.