Posted on 04/15/2009 10:13:03 AM PDT by nickcarraway
Lebanon is gearing up for elections on June 7, for which the political parties announced their candidate lists April 7. That makes this a pivotal moment for the region as a whole, and even for U.S. policy in the wider Muslim world, not least because Lebanon's border with Israel frequently sets the temperature for Arab-Israeli relations--and with them, U.S.-Muslim relations.
As is so often the case in Lebanese public life, so it is with the elections: The devil resides in the byzantine, behind-the-scenes, details. With so much at stake, the outcome is likely to be decided way before voters turn up on June 7, secretly, in the next days and weeks, by the inter-party horse trading that follows the announcement of candidates. What happens now determines how the parties will be aligned by election time. Lebanon's still too-sectarian voting system means that all too often whatever the parties offer is what their loyal voters confirm.
One should begin with a closer definition of the stakes. Roughly speaking, the camps divide into two: those aligning with the pro-Hezbollah axis (and all that that implies regionally) and those aligning with the U.S.-friendly pro-democracy movement. A vote that tilts the country toward Hezbollah will confirm Iran's influence not only over Lebanese affairs but also over regional affairs. It will have the effect of cementing Syrian-Iranian relations, thereby spoiling all attempts to lure Syria away with offers of peace and the Golan Heights.
A Hezbollah triumph will open the door to the reassertion of Syrian power in Lebanon. As the saying goes, via Hezbollah in Lebanon Syria sells Iran a war-front against Israel. Iranian-sponsored provocations on the Lebanon-Israel border allow Tehran to lead the fight against Israel, rouse the Arab street and threaten the stability of Sunni regimes.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
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