It would have been close if he’d had a decent VP candidate. Which way it would have gone, nobody will ever know. But the day Palin was named, it was absolutely over, and anyone looking at the situation objectively knew it. Sadly, I think John McCain realized it within a couple of days, but it was too late.
I personally think McCain would have lost by much more if it were not for Palin. None of the other options really inspired the base like Palin did at the time. I think more conservatives showed up to the polls because she was on the ticket. McCain was worse than Bob Dole, IMHO. McCain’s poll number went up after Palin joined the ticket so I’m curious to know why you think it was over when he picked her. And McCain’s response to the financial issue didn’t help him.
Do I think she’ll be a lasting presence on the national stage? Too early to tell, but four years is an eternity in politics. A few short years ago, Obama was a mediocre state senator. The real test will be how she succeeds as governor.