Soldiers' Vote May Swing the Elections to a Tie

israelnationalnews.com ^ | Feb. 11, 2009 | Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu

[Free ThinkerNY]

(IsraelNN.com) Voters gave Kadima 28 mandates in the next Knesset, one more than Likud, with almost all of Tuesday's ballots counted but not including votes of diplomats and soldiers, whose votes will be counted on Wednesday and Thursday. Their ballots are equal to five mandates.

Following is the current number of estimated MKs for each party following the counting of 99% of the available votes:

Kadima 28 Likud 27 Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home) 14 Labor 13 Shas 11 United Torah Judaism (UTJ) 5 Ichud Leumi (National Union) 4 Jewish Home 3 Meretz 3 Arab parties 12

The votes of the armed forces usually tilt to the nationalist and religious parties, and are likely to create at least a tie and may even put Likud in the lead. The votes of diplomats overseas and soldiers changed the results in the last election by taking one Knesset seat away from Kadima. The number of Arab MKs also will likely be reduced after the soldiers' ballots are counted.

[rfp1234]

Interesting. Is Shaul Mofaz still a Kadima MK? If he were to switch back to supporting Likud, that could help to tip the balance in Bibi’s favor.

[goldstategop]

It wouldn't come as surprise since an increasing of soldiers and enlisted officers come from a national religious background and they lean Right. Kadima is likely to lose a seat or two after all the outstanding votes are finally tallied. This election is not Kadima's to claim until its clear how the remaining votes are allocated.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[goldstategop]

Depending on which way the wind is blowing, a couple of Kadima MK's could jump back into the Likud. After all, Kadima is a party without a clear ideology of any kind.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[FlingWingFlyer]

I wish they’d count the votes of the soldiers in this country. Things would be a lot different right now.

[Bobalu]

the chances of Livni's forming a national unity government appeared nil after Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Lieberman spelled out his conditions that it would not join a government that does not want to bring down the Hamas government in Gaza.

[tvdog12345]

We need an Israeli to explain what the parties are and what this means.

[Larry381]

“in the final instance civilization is always saved by a platoon of soldiers” Oswald Spengler

[Jeb21]

Left: Kadima-28, Labor-13, Meretz-3 = 44

Right: Likud-27, Yisrael Beiteinu-14, Shas-11, United Torah Judaism-5, Ichud Leumi-4, Jewish Home-3 = 64

The Right owns over 60 seats. There are 120 Knesset seats, and it takes 61 to form a government. They can form the next government.

[JoenTX]

Not an Israeli, but right-leaning parties (Likud and others) have won more seats in the Knesset than Kadima and left-leaning parties. Shimon Peres, as head of state, will have to ask one of the leading party heads (Livni or Netanyahu) to try to form a coalition government with the other parties involved to create a “working” majority.

Right now, Netanyahu has a much better chance of forming a coalition than Livni and Kadima considering the 3rd biggest vote getter was a nationalist party who’s head has already stated that it can’t work with Livni.

[JerseyHighlander]

Party members list for elections in 2009

The following are the top Kadima members on the party list announced for elections in 2009. [9]

1. Tzipi Livni
2. Shaul Mofaz - He’d have to take the nuclear option and Kadima would implode if he returned to the Likud fold.
3. Dalia Itzik
4. Tzachi Hanegbi
5. Roni Bar-On
6. Ze’ev Boim
7. Meir Sheetrit - Long time friend, confidant and underboss in the finance Ministry of Netanyahu. THe falling out was a bit rough during Kadima’s creation, BUT Sheetrit was a major force in the economic and financial policy shifts that Netanyahu oversaw.
8. Ruhama Avraham
9. Avi Dichter
10. Marina Solodkin
11. Yoel Hasson
12. Gideon Ezra
13. Yaakov Edri - Prior Likud, was thrown under the boss by Kadima leaderhsip then put under investigation by a Kadima-leaning prosecutor, possible defection back to Likud.
14. Eli Aflalo
15. Zeev Bielski
16. Ronit Tirosh - September 2008 she came out and publicly accused Livni of stealing the Kadima party chairperson election from Mofaz. If other Kadima list return to a Likud coalition, she might follow.
17. Haim Ramon
18. Nahman Shai
19. Shlomo Mula
20. Robert Tibiev
21. Majali Wahaba
22. Rachel Adato
23. Yohanan Plesner
24. Shai Hermesh
25. Yisrael Hasson
26. Ariyeh Bibi
27. Otniel Schneller
28. Orit Zuaretz
29. Yulia Shamalov Berkovich
30. Nino Absadsa

[JerseyHighlander]

silly typos,
Yaakov Edri was thrown under the bus.

[idov]

I wouldn’t call Kadimah a left party. They’ve done something that no other centre party has ever done in Israel, survive two elections. Before this they’ve all flown apart.

It was used to be left and right were distinguished by economic policies, the left with an actual socialist agenda and the right, free market. But then came Oslo and they were polarized by the left plunging headlong into giving the Arabs everything they wanted in ill-conceived programs and the right saying go slow. The essence of Oslo in 1993 was to import Arafat and his mafia, supply them with arms, let them take over the territory, sign a peace treaty, and peace in our time. Arafat turned the arms in 2000 on Israelis and launched a wave of terror. He and his mafia also swiped the vast amounts of international aid money, and this led to the rise of Hamas, who stood for clean government.

Sharon, who was the Likud PM from 2003, founded a new party Kadimah mainly with Likudniks loyal to him. In 2006 they came up with a new plan. Unilateral setting of the borders in Judea and Samaria. Talks were going nowhere, just draw lines in the sand, and peace in our time. Within two months war broke out with Hezbollah operating from Lebanon where Israel had withdrawn from unconditionally. That killed the unilateral option. At the end war broke out with Hamas operating from Gaza where Israel with had withdrawn from unconditionally.

This election saw a swing right because the left is totally discredited. But Kadimah stayed in the middle, keep the talks going but no headlong rush, and with hard-line Likudniks like Mofaz and Hanegbi in there, they in no way resemble the old left. Besides they can’t form a government without support from the right.

The late ballots will be counted tomorrow. If they all went one way, that’s about four seats. It includes soldiers, seamen, embassy staff, hospital patients, the shutin, and prisoners. Bibi has a good chance to tie up the game since the military has in the past been for the Likud.

[tvdog12345]

Thank you.