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What Cooked the World's Economy? It wasn't your overdue mortgage.
The Village Voice ^ | James Lieber

Posted on 02/02/2009 12:41:18 AM PST by Tempest

click here to read article


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To: Toddsterpatriot

Here you go...must have come from another poster.

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) — The market for derivatives grew at the fastest pace in at least nine years to $516 trillion in the first half of 2007, the Bank for International Settlements said.
Credit-default swaps, contracts designed to protect investors against default and used to speculate on credit quality, led the increase, expanding 49 percent to cover a notional $43 trillion of debt in the six months ended June 30, the BIS said in a report published late yesterday.


181 posted on 02/02/2009 7:45:07 AM PST by bronxboy
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To: Toddsterpatriot

I am hoping that some of the laws regarding Enron may help or perhaps we can get them on their risky investments...some may have been fraudulent...maybe the RICO...I’m open to suggestions.


182 posted on 02/02/2009 7:46:38 AM PST by bronxboy
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

I don’t believe it...we bailed out AIG which is not even an American company.


183 posted on 02/02/2009 7:47:27 AM PST by bronxboy
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To: expat_panama

We keep losing jobs...who knows. However, I don’t care what unemployment is in Kenya...the old ‘we are better than some argument does not impress me’.


184 posted on 02/02/2009 7:48:47 AM PST by bronxboy
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To: expat_panama
We are still riding the momentum of the recent strong Bush economy. The real unemployment figures won't come out yet for at least 6 months, and they will continue to rise rapidly.

We will go into a depression this time around. You need to stick your head outside of your cubicle and look around. There are layoffs and business bankruptcy's lined up like dominos for the first quarter of ‘09 as far as the eye can see.

Expect unemployment to rise over 20% before it is all said and done.

185 posted on 02/02/2009 7:48:52 AM PST by PSYCHO-FREEP (WHAT? Where did my tag line go? (ACORN))
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To: Toddsterpatriot

How do we know what they lost or gained before the economy crashed? I bet more than a few got out...in time. We need to have an criminal investigation into all of this.


186 posted on 02/02/2009 7:50:42 AM PST by bronxboy
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP

Cheery news...I want my Mommy.


187 posted on 02/02/2009 7:51:29 AM PST by bronxboy
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To: rockinqsranch

So you don’t think deregulation and lack of over-sight allowed Wall street crooks to fabricate boiler rooms?


188 posted on 02/02/2009 7:51:38 AM PST by Tempest (Greed is putting money before PEOPLE.)
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To: bronxboy
The market for derivatives grew at the fastest pace in at least nine years to $516 trillion in the first half of 2007

Yes, the nominal value of these contracts is very large. The idea that $516 trillion actually changed hands is ridiculous.

Here's the difference. Say you bet $10 on the Super Bowl. The Steelers are worth about $800 million, the Cardinals about $900 million. The nominal value of your bet was $1.7 billion, but your maximum gain or loss was $10.

Glad I could help.

189 posted on 02/02/2009 7:51:40 AM PST by Toddsterpatriot (Havoc has been back since September. Or was it April?)
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To: Tempest
"The bad loans are about 1.2 trillion dollars of the problem. The CDO's is the 599 trillion dollars of the rest of the problem... "

It's an OK article on our economic crisis, But GM & Chrysler didn't come to need bailouts due to CDO derivatives and sub-prime mortgages!

What we've got are systemic problems such as:
1. Global Manufacturing overcapacity

2. A worldwide glut of office space, homes/condos, and retail (too many shopping malls)

3. International trade imbalances and currency manipulations (e.g. China)

4. A complete liquidity drought (i.e. banks aren't lending)

5. Massive destruction of credit (consider the fall of margin credit for buying stocks).

Also, keep in mind that derivatives are economic non events. They are zero sum. Sure, one party could lose big on a derivatives bet, but that means that the counter-party won big. Same money in the economy, though.

For our economy, the money may have moved from the loser to the winner, but the wealth wasn't destroyed.

This is a very important point. Derivatives moved wealth; they didn't destroy it.

Yet the global economy has seen 40% of all wealth destroyed in the past 5 Quarters. Look there for the cause of the problem!

And keep in mind that world economies are going to be working through the overcapacity and oversupply issues mentioned above, along with the credit crunch.

190 posted on 02/02/2009 7:52:05 AM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: bronxboy
I am hoping that some of the laws regarding Enron may help or perhaps we can get them on their risky investments

Enron booked phantom profits. Trading a CDS is not booking a phantom profit.

191 posted on 02/02/2009 7:52:49 AM PST by Toddsterpatriot (Havoc has been back since September. Or was it April?)
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To: Toddsterpatriot

I fail to see the ‘error’...as I stated they knew exactly what...no quantity but whatever.


192 posted on 02/02/2009 7:54:05 AM PST by bronxboy
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To: Toddsterpatriot
He thinks someone made $600 trillion that we need to "take back"? LOL!   The confusion over these issues would be funny, if it wasn't so sad.

Aw hell, the 'feeling' is tragic, downright devastating, which is why I avoid feeling it.  Then again, when you think about this nonsense it's hilarious!

 

--which also probably explains why doom'n'glomers are a bit slow with the thinking part...

193 posted on 02/02/2009 7:55:09 AM PST by expat_panama
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To: bronxboy
I fail to see the ‘error’

You said these guys knew exactly what they were doing. Their huge losses are proof they did not.

194 posted on 02/02/2009 7:55:43 AM PST by Toddsterpatriot (Havoc has been back since September. Or was it April?)
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To: Southack

Warren Buffet the oracle from Omaha says derivatives are H bombs...hardly zero sum.


195 posted on 02/02/2009 7:55:59 AM PST by bronxboy
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To: Tempest

BOOKMARK


196 posted on 02/02/2009 7:57:09 AM PST by dennisw (white trash philosophizer)
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To: Toddsterpatriot

Did the ones who started this really lose or did they take their money and run before it began? Also, this scheme had potential to crash the economy and did crash the economy...they made plenty of money before this happened. I’m betting that many did in fact get out in time...leaving us to deal with the crap they created. Those who lost their money merely stayed in too long...it doesn’t change the fact they caused it.


197 posted on 02/02/2009 7:58:50 AM PST by bronxboy
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To: expat_panama

You all are a little slow at observing what’s going on...ideology blinds so many.


198 posted on 02/02/2009 7:59:54 AM PST by bronxboy
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To: expat_panama
"He thinks someone made $600 trillion that we need to "take back"?"

The author doesn't yet grasp that derivatives are zero sum...that $600 Trillion in derivatives simply moved the self-same $1 Trillion back and forth between related parties 600+ times.

Obviously there's not $600 Trillion to "Take Back!"

Identifying $600 Trillion in total trades/contracts is not the same as identifying $600 Trillion in unique wealth.

199 posted on 02/02/2009 8:00:58 AM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: bronxboy
Did the ones who started this really lose or did they take their money and run before it began?

Did Bear Stearns lose money? Lehman? AIG? Merrill?

200 posted on 02/02/2009 8:01:00 AM PST by Toddsterpatriot (Havoc has been back since September. Or was it April?)
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