Swing voters determine who wins in Indiana. Swing voters determine who wins in 16 states. Swing voters, sometimes called moderates, do not vote on ideology. They vote based on two simple criteria. They vote for the most likable candidate who promises to do the most or them.
If the moderate voters like a candidate they will vote for that candidate. If both candidates are equally likable they will vote for the candidate that they think will do the most for them (not society at large.. not the economy.. but for them). For moderate voters ideology is never a factor.
There is a lot of election history in which moderate voters will in the same election vote for a very liberal candidate for one office and a very conservativew one for another office. That is what happened in indiana... the swing voters went for the Governor. They also went for Obama.
they will vote for the candidate that they think will do the most for them
Thats not even remotely correct - that would be a liberal.
They vote for the most likable candidate who promises to do the most or them. No. Bush did not promise to give away the economy to them like the liberals are currently doing.
McCain lost because he was nothing at all that was much different from the real deal leftist libs.
It isn't called McCAin/Kennedy for nothing.
Or the Keating gang.
Or the gang of whatever.
His positions simply were not worth pulling the lever.
And that is why he, and almost any RINO, will lost the big one forever.
Hell, I will contribute to anyone who would run against him in the primary - He was, and is, worthless.