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Posted on 01/20/2009 6:42:13 PM PST by neverdem
In one of his first public policy statements as America’s president-elect, Barack Obama focused on climate change, and clearly stated both his priori ties and the facts on which these priorities rest. Unfortunately, both are weak, or even wrong.
According to Obama, “few challenges facing America and the world are more urgent than combating climate change.” Such a statement is now commonplace for most political leaders around the world, even though it neglects to address the question of how much we can do to help America and the world through climate policies versus other policies.
Consider, for example, hurricanes in America. Clearly, a policy of reducing CO2 emissions would have had zero consequence on Katrina’s devastating impact on New Orleans, where such a disaster was long expected. Over the next half-century, even large reductions in CO2 emissions would have only a negligible impact. Instead, direct policies to address New Orleans’ vulnerabilities could have avoided the huge and unnecessary cost in human misery and economic loss. These should have included stricter building codes, smarter evacuation policies, and better preservation of wetlands (which could have reduced the ferociousness of the hurricane). Most importantly, a greater focus on upkeep and restoration of the levees could have spared the city entirely. Perhaps these types of preventive actions should be Obama’s priority.
Likewise, consider world hunger. Pleas for action on climate change reflect fears that global warming might undermine agricultural production, especially in the developing world. But global agricultural/economic models indicate that even under the most pessimistic assumptions, global warming would reduce agricultural production by just 1.4% by the end of the century.
Moreover, by implementing the Kyoto Protocol at a cost of $180 billion annually would keep two million people from going hungry only by the end of the century. Yet by spending just $10 billion annually, the United Nations estimates that we could help 229 million hungry people today. Every time spending on climate policies saves one person from hunger in a hundred years, the same amount could have saved 5,000 people now. Arguably, this should be among Obama’s top priorities.
Obama wants to prioritise global warming policies: “The science is beyond dispute and the facts are clear. Sea levels are rising. Coastlines are shrinking. We’ve seen record drought, spreading famine, and storms that are growing stronger with each passing hurricane season.” Yes, global warming is happening, and mankind is partly responsible, but these statements are — however eloquent — seriously wrong or misleading.
Sea levels are rising, but they have been rising at least since the early 1800s. In the era of satellite measurements, the rise has not accelerated (actually we’ve seen a sea-level fall over the past two years). The UN expects about a 30-centimetre sea-level rise over this century — about what we saw over the past 150 years.
In that period, many coastlines increased, most obviously in Holland, because rich countries can easily protect and even expand their territory. But even for oft-cited Bangladesh, scientists just this year showed that the country grows by 20 square kilometres each year, because river sedimentation win out over rising sea levels.
Obama’s claim about record droughts similarly fails even on a cursory level — the US has, in all academic estimates, been getting wetter over the century (with the 1930s ‘dust bowl’ setting the drought high point). This is even true globally over the past half-century, as one of the most recent scientific studies of actual soil moisture shows: “there is an overall small wetting trend in global soil moisture.”
Furthermore, famine has rapidly declined over the past half century. The main deviation has been the past two years of record-high food prices, caused not by climate change but by the policies designed to combat it: the dash for ethanol, which put food into cars and thus upward pressure on food prices. The World Bank estimates this policy has driven at least 30 million more people into hunger. To cite policy-driven famine as an argument for more of the same policy seems unreasonable.
Finally, it is simply wrong to say storms are growing stronger every hurricane season. Even for the Atlantic hurricane basin, which we tend to hear about the most, the total hurricane energy (ACE) as measured by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has declined by two-thirds since the record was set in 2005. For the world, this trend has been more decisive: maximum ACE was reached in 1994, and has plummeted for the past three years, while hurricanes around the world have for the past year been about as inactive as at any time since records began being kept. Global warming should be tackled, but smartly through research and development of low-carbon alternatives. If we are to get our policies right, it is crucial that we get our facts right.
(The author is head of the Copenhagen Consensus Center)
(C): Project Syndicate, 2008
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Global cooling during the ‘error of Obama’ will likely cause food shortages.
Hasn’t Bjorn heard? Being wrong means you are right in Demorat circles. I wonder if he is finally realizing that Global Warming is being driven by liberal/totalitarian politics? Perhaps he should look back at all the non-scientific scaremondering about AIDS for a model.
All the best—GGG
What about all that stuff I routinely hear about the the great plains in the grip of a slow-motion decades-long drought.
That’s all bogus?
It's all so insane. You can't win with these freaks. Of course it's a multi-billion dollar industry, studying the effects man is having on climate change.
It's a lost cause at this point, there are simply too many stupid people in the country who simply believe everything the media tells them.
"Factor 8: The Arkansas Prison Blood Scandal," made by Kelly Duda, an Arkansas native, will reveal new details about how inmates at an Arkansas jail were paid to donate blood despite authorities knowing they had AIDS and hepatitis.The documentary shows how senior figures in the state prison system altered prisoners' medical records to make it look like they were not carrying the deadly diseases.
HIV/AIDS-CHINA: Henan Orphans Finally Speak Out
Wen's parents, as many other Henan peasants, were infected with the disease after selling blood to government collection stations in the 1990s. Numerous donors would be hooked up to the same blood plasma machines and the virus spread from one infected patient to many others.It was the cash crunch that drove local governments in Henan to pile into the blood plasma trade as a way of funding their medical services. Once in the business, officials were reluctant to abandon such a lucrative source of revenue, even when the trade was banned.
In other accounts that I read that their plasma was pooled, and then retransfused to the donors from the pooled plasma after the desired components were obtained. There are no other good simple explanations for a diagnosis other than AIDS.
That’s all bogus?
IIRC, the drought coincided with the recent warming. Click on the keyword global cooling. I believe the drought is supposed to ease with global cooling.
Are We Entering Era of Global Cooling Alarmism?
Stemming the Tide - Let’s pay science and math teachers more. 17 % of U.S. college graduates earned a degree in science, technology, engineering, or math.
Some noteworthy articles about politics, foreign and military affairs, IMHO, FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.
bump
Thanks for the ping!
LOL!
They are going to redistribute trillions of dollars to the elite in the name of Climate Change.
44% Say Global Warming Due To Planetary Trends, Not People
If they want to commit political suicide, that's great! Check the keyword globalcooling. There are links on the thread on global cooling.
Thanks, neverdem. That is heartening to hear. I was beginning to think that only about 5% of us ever passed a high school science class.
Thanks for the ping to another wonderful Lomborg article! He makes such sense, which is why no one in the Obama administration will listen to him, of course. Imagine, a scientist who doesn’t buy into catastropic economic policies and political agenda! How rare.
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