It will shine a whole new light on your theory. (In a good way.)
***Do you agree with my odds analysis? Maybe N is lower than 0.3?
Has a petition for writ of certiorari been filed for each case?
I followed Donofrio’s case. He declined to file an actual petition and instead expected the court to convert his request for an emergency stay into a writ. (As they did in Bush/Gore.)
I’m far from a mathematician, but your numbers seem logical.
P.S. That document has data about the percentage of cases selected for conference. They analyzed 9 terms from 1985 - 1993.