It would seem that cert is denied in 70% of all cases without being discussed at conference. It would also seem that if a case is put on the “discuss list” for conference, then one of the justices thought the case worthy of discussion.
Thanks BT. That’s the first time I’ve seen this addressed. I gather that Congressman Billybob’s assessment of 1/200 is a bit too low, and the average troll who says that all cases get forwarded for this informal conference (making the odds 1:1) are too high. Having the odds at 0.3 seems about right.
Now let’s process that where 1/N = 0.3. in the previous calculations.
Using that chance, N, then it’s (1/N)^5 that all of these cases were forwarded for conference. When N was 200, look where we ended up... 0.3^5 * 1/34560 = 0.00000000703125 which is ~1 in 70Billion.
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Previous correspondence on this topic
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Congressman Billybob says that 1/200 cases are not rejected outright. So have these cases made it past that filter yet? What are the chances that a case will be forwarded for conference?
Will the 3rd time be the Charm in Challenging Obama’s Eligibility?
Sunday, December 28, 2008 12:56:12 PM · 88 of 91
Congressman Billybob to Kevmo
No, all cases referred to the Court are NOT conferenced. To the contrary, 99.5% are rejected without conferences. Plus, only cases that are briefed and argued are actually confedrenced.
Requests for Emergency Relief are “referred” to the other Justices when the ONE Justice who has the case things that relief MIGHT be appropriate. I’ve talked about this process for about four months, now.
Congressman Billybob
The odds have increased even more. The Lightfoot case was Distributed for Conference today by Roberts. #5.
***Yikes. That’s (1/200)^5, which is a 1 in 320Billion chance. When you combine that with the odds that the fake CoLB posted by the nom de plume “hayIBaPhorgerie” has the same time of birth as zer0bama.which is 1/34560 that 2 people would be born at 7:24pm. Now the odds are about 1 in a genuine QUADRILLION, or a thousand trillions. And yet, we’re all just a bunch of kooky conspiracy theorists. Is Judge Roberts a conspiracy theorist?
Interview, Orly Taitz: Chief Justice Roberts Calls Conference on Obama Challenge: Lightfoot v. Bowen
Monday, January 12, 2009 6:51:42 PM · 510 of 686
Congressman Billybob to Kevmo
Good analysis. The issue is beating all kinds of odds against it. That means a better chance of victory, but it doesn’t create or guarantee victory.
Congressman Billybob
Latest article, “The Silence of Snow”
The Declaration, the Constitution, parts of the Federalist, and America’s Owner’s Manual, here.
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To: mlo; MHGinTN; hoosiermama; Jim Robinson; Congressman Billybob
Credibility is exactly the point.
***Then let us address it. Hoosiermama’s dad was an appellate lawyer. So is congressman billybob. There are a few lawyers here on FR that could address this issue. It’s very simple. What is the threshold of credibility for an issue? When is it no longer the purview of Tinfoil Hat Conspiracists? When an issue has 6 concurrent cases before the SCOTUS, has been forwarded for conference 5 times, and there are 10 MORE cases winding their way through the court system, does that meet the threshold? Chemtrails, Vince Foster, Ron Brown, Flight 800, none of those issues made it this far. The Monica Lewinsky thing did.
We’re constantly told that we are tinfoil hat conspiracy theorists. My counter argument is that the issue has been forwarded for conference 5 times, twice in Berg’s case. I would like to know how rare that is, or if it really is “just procedure”. Congressman Billybob says that 1/200 cases are not rejected outright. So have these cases made it past that filter yet? What are the chances that a case will be forwarded for conference?
Using that chance, N, then it’s (1/N)^5 that all of these cases were forwarded for conference. When N was 200, look where we ended up...
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2160501/posts
“The fact that these lawsuits have been forwarded for conference 4 times is a 1 in 1.6Billion chance.”
The odds have increased even more. The Lightfoot case was Distributed for Conference today by Roberts. #5.
***Yikes. That’s (1/200)^5, which is a 1 in 320Billion chance. When you combine that with the odds that the fake CoLB posted by the nom de plume “hayIBaPhorgerie” has the same time of birth as zer0bama.which is 1/34560 that 2 people would be born at 7:24pm. Now the odds are about 1 in a genuine QUADRILLION, or a thousand trillions. And yet, we’re all just a bunch of kooky conspiracy theorists. Is Judge Roberts a conspiracy theorist?
505 posted on Monday, January 12, 2009 6:42:30 PM by Kevmo ( It’s all over for this Country as a Constitutional Republic. ~Leo Donofrio, 12/14/08)
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meant to ping you to this as well... I hope I didn’t miss anyone else.
Kevmo - read the document that I referenced in my posts. It provides a great deal of insight into the strategy that justices uses to select cases for conference. It will shine a whole new light on your theory. (In a good way.)
Math Error Alert.
The odds that the fake CoLB posted by the nom de plume “hayIBaPhorgerie” has the same time of birth as zer0bama (7:24pm) would reflect 24 hours/day * 60 minutes/hour = 1440 minutes/day. = 1/1440
Now let’s process that where 1/N = 0.3. in the previous calculations. (1/N)^5 that all of these cases were forwarded for conference. 0.3^5 * 1/1440 = .00243 * 0.000694 = 0.0000016875 which is ~1 in 1.6875Million. These are not astronomical numbers, they’re actually pretty believable.