Another Great Depression? (Thomas Sowell)

Townhall.com ^ | December 23, 2008 | Thomas Sowell

[jazusamo]

I am no economist whereas Dr. Sowell is one of if not the best in our country, IMO. Google Thomas Sowell and The Great Depression, there are numerous articles written by him on the depression and protectionism.

[ChiMark]

History repeats itself because the average American today beleives Zer0 is coming in with a new socialist agenda.

Unfortunately it’s a replay of the failed Keynsian model embraced by the elitists of the 1930’s. An economic recovery this summer looks very weak at this point.
The vast majority thinks this economy is bad. Well how’s
14% to 19% 1930’s sustained unemployment compare to 6.7% today.

[jazusamo]

I believe he’s limited by the length of his columns and wouldn’t be surprised to see him write more on this.

[dalereed]

I think it was in either the 60s or 70s when they started including welfare as employed to make the numbers look better.

statistics: How to lie with figures and how to make figures lie!

[Xenophon450]

Also, what must be stated is that the Weimar republic went through a brief period of deflation before the hyperinflation took place. Exactly like how a Tsunami causes all the water on the beach to recede before making its entry.

Many people state that banks may be forced to lend, I believe it will be in conjunction with "Stimulus checks" of monopoly money, to help consumer spending.

[dalereed]

“BHO Depression.”

I think BO Depression would go over with most people better!

Body Odor!

[jazusamo]

I've lived by those rules and I thank them for teaching them to me.

My pareants taught my sister and I the same thing re credit. Though they didn't save much through it they weathered it fine, my Dad was a steam engineer and had a good job in a powerhouse but it was a desert location in the middle of nowhere and that's where I was born.

[freekitty]

Ok, what are we going to do about it?

[DB]

I think the only way to prevent major credit bubbles in the future is to set interest rates to no less than what is offered as return on widely available investment. As soon as money is cheaper than the returns in a widely available “investment” people borrow (leverage) themselves so they can “invest” more and when it goes wrong, it goes real wrong...

In this case cheap money was chasing ever increasing cost real estate. As more money flowed in the demand for more real estate increased, increasing the price of what was available. As the price rose it appeared to be providing high returns on the borrowed money and so more people jumped in to get their share while the getting was good.

[Will88]

“Though they didn’t save much through it they weathered it fine,”

Anyone with a steady job did reasonably well. My father got a job as a substitute mail carrier, and just that enabled him to weather the GD without too much difficulty. He also had several items, watches, shotguns, and such that he bought for very low prices.

[spikeytx86]

It wasn't the spending on bombers and planes that got us out of the depression. It was the pent up consumer demand that developed during the war when everything was rationed for the war effort. You had tens of millions of workers and soldiers with pay checks building up in their bank accounts and nothing to spend it on.

Finally when the war ended and the boys came marching home, they had fat bank accounts and an appetite for Chevrolet's, washing machines, and a home in the country.

It was the perfect storm, fat bank accounts, a big pent up demand for consumer goods, and ample factory capacity from war time expansions to keep up without inflation.

The second factor was that after the war, we were really the only industrialized nation whose industry was still intact. If any one in the world needed anything made or supplies for reconstruction, they came to Uncle Sam.

It is those two things that led to the end of the depression and prosperity.

[reg45]

0bama, following in the footmissteps of FDR.

[dalereed]

“Ok, what are we going to do about it?”

Stay out of debt, the stock market, and keep cash in short term obligations so you can take advantage of others misfortune and to convert to higher insterest notes as interest rates creap up.

If BO is as inept as Carter I see 18% again and i’ll make myself set for the rest of my life.

[jazusamo]

Ok, what are we going to do about it?

I'm going to further the Conservative cause and as frustrated as I get contacting elected officials I'll keep doing it and making a lot of noise. Mine are all RATS but if just one comes around it'll be worth it.

[KellyM37]

Make plans, NOW. Get ready to get out when they sh*t hits the fan. If you don’t, you may not be able too. If nothing happens, then good, but at least you won’t be stuck here under martial law and the rule of the dictator.

[wombtotomb]

same as they stopped using the real debt numbers and have 3 sets of books. Funny how thats the same number of cards used in 3 card monty......

[screaminsunshine]

It is a great bankruptcy. Artificial demand created by credit is what messed up the economy. Too much ccredit extended that can not be repaid along with the fact that everyone and everything is limited out. Time for the great bankruptcy and start over.

[Boiling point]

I believe BO will get his war, it will be here. When all these baby boomers get ready to retire after working their A$$es off putting money into 401Ks and IRAs because they knew that after paying thousands of dollars in S.S. taxes, THAT money got wasted on entitlement programs to buy votes. Now the IRAs and 401Ks have been wiped out. I think it very unwise to give a heavily armed populace nothing to loose. But hey, who ever accused congress of being wise?

[PhilDragoo]

Dr. Sowell confirms what I had read in John T. Flynn, The Roosevelt Myth.

Bush-McCain failed to make a valid point, that they'd warned of a downside to the radical expansion of Carter's CRA a la Raines and Gorelick, Frank and Schumer, Waters and Dodd.

McCain could've won the election by being the maverick he never was but always pretended to be, opposed the bailout, talked straight.

Rahm et al rave that this crisis is too precious to waste.

Would that it were the cute fortune cookie ideogram that means trouble or opportunity.

More the KGB Active Measures mantra/dialectic of 1. Demoralization; 2. Destabilization; 3. Crisis; 4. Resolution (Revolution).

Democrats exist because of the problems they create and perpetuate, but never solve, never remove their raison d'etre.

Alternative energy? Beanies on every head wired to the grid?

A tire guage in every pocket?

We have nothing to fear but taxes being too low?

And of course, Hussein will disarm us and attempt to appease our enemies, thus insuring that we are weakened, vulnerable, attacked.

These are the times that try men's souls, but Hussein, having none, does a little blow, lights a menthol, speed dials Soros for further instructions.

Don't worry--be happy.

[roadcat]

Hmmm...the “Bleak Depression”? The “Horrible Depression”? The “Most Depressing Depression”? The “Awful Depression”. The “Miserable Depression”?

No. It's "The Dark Depression". Before it's over, it'll seem like the Dark Ages revisited. (And Dark also because Obummer will be at the helm.)