Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: NetSurfer
I tried to read the entire article on RS...and he has a follow up as well.....can one of you smart people enlighten me about the bond market.......is going up a "bad" thing....

if deflation occurs, who can be a winner?....savers?..investors?....spenders?...

and what do we do to prepare for deflation......I mean really concrete things....

17 posted on 11/20/2008 9:10:24 PM PST by cherry
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies ]


To: cherry

Not much I can do - if it happens longer term than a year, I’ll probably see a salary decrease, among other things.


18 posted on 11/20/2008 9:13:18 PM PST by RockinRight (Now it's my turn to have a psychotic, uncontrollable hatred for the President.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies ]

To: cherry

Generally and theoretically the bond market moves in an opposite direction to the stock market. Fear drives money out of stocks and into the bond market for safety not return. As the price of a bond goes UP the interest rate it pays goes DOWN. This gives a self-correcting mechanism to the investment market as lower interest rates produces more investment everything else equal. So lower interest rates are “bad” in that they are the symptoms of reduced economic activity.

Your second question is more complex but can be approached by realizing that deflation makes Cash more valuable since prices have falled. It hurts savers though because interest rates fall as well. If you have invested in real assets their prices stagnate or fall hence their rate of return drops. If you had invested in Treasuries then you profit since their prices have increased as does the principal you invested in purchasing them.

The solution to deflation is also a cause of deflation. You want to spend money more slowly since it is becoming more valuable but spending money more slowly means economic growth slows which becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

Hence, there will be a massive push for even more federal spending as a means of keeping income growth from falling rapidly.

Economics is not called “the dismal science” for nothing.


26 posted on 11/20/2008 9:46:57 PM PST by arrogantsob (Hero vs Zero)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson