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Global warming predictions are overestimated, suggests study on black carbon (Cornell University)
Cornell Chronicle ^ | Nov. 18, 2008 | By Krishna Ramanujan

Posted on 11/19/2008 5:09:33 PM PST by Behind Liberal Lines

A detailed analysis of black carbon -- the residue of burned organic matter -- in computer climate models suggests that those models may be overestimating global warming predictions.

A new Cornell study, published online in Nature Geosciences, quantified the amount of black carbon in Australian soils and found that there was far more than expected, said Johannes Lehmann, the paper's lead author and a Cornell professor of biogeochemistry. The survey was the largest of black carbon ever published.

As a result of global warming, soils are expected to release more carbon dioxide, the major greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere, which, in turn, creates more warming. Climate models try to incorporate these increases of carbon dioxide from soils as the planet warms, but results vary greatly when realistic estimates of black carbon in soils are included in the predictions, the study found.

Soils include many forms of carbon, including organic carbon from leaf litter and vegetation and black carbon from the burning of organic matter. It takes a few years for organic carbon to decompose, as microbes eat it and convert it to carbon dioxide. But black carbon can take 1,000-2,000 years, on average, to convert to carbon dioxide.

By entering realistic estimates of stocks of black carbon in soil from two Australian savannas into a computer model that calculates carbon dioxide release from soil, the researchers found that carbon dioxide emissions from soils were reduced by about 20 percent over 100 years, as compared with simulations that did not take black carbon's long shelf life into account.

The findings are significant because soils are by far the world's largest source of carbon dioxide, producing 10 times more carbon dioxide each year than all the carbon dioxide emissions from human activities combined. Small changes in how carbon emissions from soils are estimated, therefore, can have a large impact.

"We know from measurements that climate change today is worse than people have predicted," said Lehmann. "But this particular aspect, black carbon's stability in soil, if incorporated in climate models, would actually decrease climate predictions."

The study quantified the amount of black carbon in 452 Australian soils across two savannas. Black carbon content varied widely, between zero and more than 80 percent, in soils across Australia.

"It's a mistake to look at soil as one blob of carbon," said Lehmann. "Rather, it has different chemical components with different characteristics. In this way, soil will interact differently to warming based on what's in it."


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: catastrophism; climatechange; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax; nasa
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To: SunkenCiv

Thanks for the ping!


21 posted on 11/19/2008 9:04:48 PM PST by Rurudyne (Standup Philosopher)
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To: Behind Liberal Lines

This racist thing has gone way to far!! Now they are segregating carbon! What could be next?


22 posted on 11/19/2008 9:17:52 PM PST by April Lexington (We are now in the era of Timothy Leary Economics!)
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To: Behind Liberal Lines

Unless this study was peer-reviewed by James Hansen and Al Gore, it can’t be valid.

/moonbat


23 posted on 11/19/2008 9:25:42 PM PST by denydenydeny ("The monster state is a source of many evils; but it is, above all, an engine of envy."-Paul Johnson)
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To: Behind Liberal Lines
I believe that the Cornell Chronicle is the conservative student publication on campus. Hard copies of the publication have been known to be "disappeared" without comment by the administration as they consider such action a form of speech.
24 posted on 11/20/2008 2:48:07 AM PST by Jimmy Valentine's brother (Hey Zero you are a Marxist!)
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To: Jimmy Valentine's brother
I believe that the Cornell Chronicle is the conservative student publication on campus.

No. The Chronicle is the weekly newspaper put out by the University administration. The Cornell Daily Sun is the "mainstream" (read: liberal) student newspaper and the Cornell Review is the conservative paper.

25 posted on 11/20/2008 5:18:11 AM PST by Behind Liberal Lines
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To: Behind Liberal Lines
Ah, I get it now. I should have realized that based on the statement:

As a result of global warming, soils are expected to release more carbon dioxide, the major greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere, which, in turn, creates more warming.

No conservative student with a background in high school chemistry would accept that canard.

Thank you enlightening me as to the facts.

26 posted on 11/20/2008 6:39:16 AM PST by Jimmy Valentine's brother (Hey Zero you are a Marxist!)
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To: Behind Liberal Lines

“Global warming” hoax BUMP!


27 posted on 11/20/2008 6:41:15 AM PST by Lancey Howard
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To: Behind Liberal Lines
"We know from measurements that climate change today is worse than people have predicted," said Lehmann

This is the gratuitous qualifier Lehmann had to state in order to keep his gravy train of government funding out of jeopardy.

28 posted on 11/20/2008 6:44:23 AM PST by Lancey Howard
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To: Behind Liberal Lines

The study author is a highly regarded scientist worth listening to. You know this, but others “not from around here” need to know not to lump all of Cornell (or Ithaca) into a single stereotype.


29 posted on 11/20/2008 7:43:07 AM PST by Tirian
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To: Lancey Howard

Unfortunately, one has to be careful and judicious. No funding means no research.


30 posted on 11/20/2008 7:45:19 AM PST by Tirian
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To: Tirian

Yes, and I started my thread out by pointing out that his study was a rare moment of sanity from Ithaca/Cornell.


31 posted on 11/20/2008 8:00:22 AM PST by Behind Liberal Lines
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To: Behind Liberal Lines
"We know from measurements that climate change today is worse than people have predicted," said Lehmann.

It's getting cold fast.

32 posted on 11/20/2008 8:03:12 AM PST by <1/1,000,000th%
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To: Behind Liberal Lines
Is there much talk about how Global Warming carbon taxes will hurt the poor???

I guess if its an environmental issue, then the Democrats/liberals have no problem sticking it to poor people and poor nations... It gets in the way of their agenda, and they only need poor folk to vote for them...

Democrat has become -> Demon-cr@p

Because the Christian element (c) of the Democratic party is now Pagan (p).

The addition of 'N' stands for "Not" -- as in "Not Constitutional", "Nonsense", "No Good", etc...

The Democratic Party, i.e., the party of DEMON-CR@Ps are just a bunch of no-goods anymore, in my opinion...

33 posted on 11/20/2008 9:18:12 AM PST by topher (Let us return to old-fashioned morality - morality that has stood the test of time...)
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To: topher
Because the Christian element (c) of the Democratic party is now Pagan (p).

Should have been: Because the Christian element (t) of the Democratic party is now Pagan (p).

A "T" can symbolize the cross Christians carry...

34 posted on 11/20/2008 9:19:35 AM PST by topher (Let us return to old-fashioned morality - morality that has stood the test of time...)
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To: Behind Liberal Lines

It’s all a bunch of white supremacist junk science!

When are they going to “study” white carbon? Why is it sooooo important that only black carbon gets the blame? This so-called “study” is more like an indictment of black carbon if you ask me! THEY WANT TO LYNCH BLACK CARBON!

/sarc and lmao


35 posted on 11/20/2008 11:26:57 AM PST by snowrip (Liberal? YOU ARE A SOCIALIST WITH NO RATIONAL ARGUMENT.)
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To: Behind Liberal Lines; 11B40; A Balrog of Morgoth; A message; ACelt; Aeronaut; AFPhys; AlexW; ...
DOOMAGE!

Global Warming PING!

You have been pinged because of your interest in environmentalism, alarmist wackos, mainstream media doomsday hype, and other issues pertaining to global warming.

Freep-mail me to get on or off: Add me / Remove me

Please ping me to all note-worthy threads on global warming.

Global warming on Free Republic

Latest from Global Warming News Site

Latest from Greenie Watch

Latest from Junk Science

Latest from Terra Daily

36 posted on 11/20/2008 8:17:08 PM PST by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvxiG56M-eU)
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To: Behind Liberal Lines; SunkenCiv; All

“soils...producing 10 times more carbon dioxide each year than all...human activities combined.”

Mathematics is not my strongest suite, but can someone explain to me how, if soils produce 10 times what humans produce each year, that atmospheric CO2 has doubled in the past few decades. If their figures are correct, then the CO2 increase should be much more gradual than it seems to be. In other words, why the “hockey stick”?


37 posted on 11/20/2008 10:01:06 PM PST by gleeaikin
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

Thanks for the ping.


38 posted on 11/21/2008 10:20:47 AM PST by GOPJ (Murder rate per 100,000 residents in counties won by: Democrats: 13.2 Republicans: 2.1 -Olson)
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To: Behind Liberal Lines

From Cornell?!?!

Maybe hell did freeze over.

Of course, with the weather we’ve been having the last few days.....


39 posted on 11/21/2008 2:43:23 PM PST by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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To: John123; Behind Liberal Lines

I’ve been wracking my brains trying to recall all the other colors carbon comes in and am coming up short....


40 posted on 11/21/2008 2:46:30 PM PST by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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