That was my general view after seeing the evidence at Factcheck, particularly photo #5 ( http://www.factcheck.org/UploadedFiles/birth_certificate_5.jpg). There is really only one way that photo could be created which is someone photographed an actual artifact complete with seal (embossing). Another photo at Factcheck shows the notary stamp, unfortunately since that is a photo of the back of the document, it could be a different document.
But bottom line, someone used an embosser to create the artifact shown in photo 5. One plausible explanation is that someone in the Hawaii office created it fraudulently. Another is someone in the Hawaii office stole the embosser and sold it to a forger. Another is that someone created an embosser and used it on a forgery. In the latter cases the forger would also need the cross hatched paper (or have to create it separately from the forgery of the border and text).
The bottom line from this visible evidence is that a real implement created that photographed artifact and I would agree that sooner or later the person who used the implement will turn up or confess. Like you said, it might be a lot later.
And that reasoning you just laid out is far more persuasive to me than anything else I have read here.
The released document does indeed have an embossed seal. The short form is the standard form used in Hawaii. Now there very well may be a concerted effort by some folks to create a fraudulent document. But I am suspicious. And I do have faith that if that is true, it WILL come out.
