“Osama became worm excrement - long ago.”
This is what I think happened as well. We got Saddam Hussein, so I think Osama bin Laden would have been captured by now as well if he were alive. No one has explained how he’s able to keep up with his dialysis going from cave to cave.
Saddam was in a country of enemies he created. Bin Laden moves between two countries in which he’s a hero.
Not knowing the severity of his kidney failure, I can only offer possabilities...Parataneal dialysis is possible for "mild" failure. He would change his fluid in his intestine cavity for lack of a better description 2 or 3 times a day. Home dialysis machines I dont know much about but they are used. A Full blown hemo-dialysis machine is the size of an apartment refrigerator and not that complicated to use. Sterile conditions are another matter.
Remember that Taliban funeral that a Predator Drone filmed in 2006? Only Osama merited such a large gathering. Of course they knew our rules of engagement would prohibit us from attacking a cemetary. I say get the coordinates and dig up the body. We’ve got bin Ladin DNA on hand.
Because that is a media started / web continued myth - The notion of UBL needing dialysis was debunked by several Gov'ts OGAs (including ours) back in the late 90s.
When one understands the region of the world where he is located along with the logistic complexities regarding both Intel and DA Ops, one understands how he has remained alive.
When one understands that Gulbuddin Hekmatyar & Jalaluddin Haqqani both remain alive and very much wanted dead, one understands how UBL has remained so as well. Ditto this for Zawahiri.
That these men remain alive (but hunted and running) is not a sign of failure on our part (possibly to a slight degree in terms of risk-adverse HQs) but speaks more simply to the region of the world in which they are located in.
Of the four (alone) HVTs I've mentioned above I'd be willing to bet we eventually put 3 in the ground ourselves with one of them dying of the elements of old age and on the run (that likely being Jalaluddin Haqqani).
Eyes in the sky are great and all, but in this region of the world they are only as great as the HUMINT we have to go along with them.
You know, a lot of times it’s not that easy keeping dialysis patients alive in the US, with the finest facilities and the best and most sanitary medical care in the world. I’m not seeing this working out too well in caves.