Excuse me, but if the CIA knows this details, why don’t they just ask him during these apparent and intimate, one-on-one conversations how come he doesn’t surrender? If he says “no”. Then cap him. Otherwise, they need to can all of their moogly boogly psychoanalysis mumble jumble and STFU.
Couldn’t somebody just ask a direct question of Hayden during this speech, “Sir, how do you know what state he is in? Did you talk to a bodyguard, or is Curveball back in action?”
There are numerous ways to conclude (even verify to a set date) that someone is/was alive, without being able to pinpoint their location in any actionable sense.