Watching this race has been very interesting, and I thank you for posting the frequent updates and related information. I’m going to have to get some sleep now, but I did a quick calculation that tells me that Coleman is extremely likely to win. He’s getting 50.2% to Franken’s 49.8% of the votes between them (ignoring other candidates). With 95.01% of the votes counted, there are about 119,000 votes left for the two of them to split up. To close the current 11,771 gap, Franken would need to win 55% of those 119,000 votes to Coleman’s 45%. Even allowing for variations in localities where the remaining votes will come from, that’s a huge change from the current percentages. It’s not going to happen.
However, there are undoubtedly a lot of late absentees and provisional ballots which must be counted, and those could still alter the outcome. It’s close enough that Minnesota may have to wait awhile for an official verdict.
Good analysis — and you’re right on. Absentees may come into play. This won’t be over any time soon.
My next update will be my last — I have obligations to clients that start in... well, not very long. I should at least try to get a few minutes of sleep!
It’s been, ahhhh... fun???