Actually weighting is an issue. They are assigning a higher +D based on assumptions.
I’m no pro but I love reading the variety of breakdowns from folks who know how to do such a thing.
After reweighting back to closer to historic norms, the numbers run a lot tighter.
“Actually weighting is an issue. They are assigning a higher +D based on assumptions.”
Yes, they have. And we already know that those assumptions of D vs. R voter turnout are most likely wrong. However, I am more interested in the MOVEMENT within that given methodology. Away from us or towards us? If a poll is at 5% with a given methodology, does it tighten to 3%, then 2% (and you can then reweight as you see fit with your own assumed turnout model) or does it move away to 7%, 9%? I just don’t like that every poll has things moving in the wrong direction, including GWU/Battleground and IBD/TIPP, which both have a reasonable turnout expectation.
Ok, final IBD/TIPP just came out:
IBD/TIPP Predicts Obama Victory by 7.2 Point Margin Over McCain
Final IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll Shows Obama Leading McCain 51.5% to 44.3%