FoxNews/Battleground Polls (M +1 in NC, FL; tie in MO, OH; M down 4 in CO, VA)

foxynews ^ | 11/3/08 | foxynews

[ZULU]

True. They look better for McCain.

Tomorrow will tell the tale.

[word_warrior_bob]

I knew the sarcasm, I was just informing everyone.

[Yankee]

Any ties go to McCain.

Bradley effect minimum 3% in my humble opinion.

[RoseofTexas]

Jeremiah 17:7-8

7 "But blessed is the man who trusts in the LORD, whose confidence is in him.

8 He will be like a tree planted by the water that sends out its roots by the stream. It does not fear when heat comes; its leaves are always green. It has no worries in a year of drought and never fails to bear fruit."

[Ravi]

Hopefully with CO rallies this evening and tomorrow morning in Colorado Springs and Grand Junction, this can put CO over the top.

[LALALAW]

McCain is actually running a very good campaign. All the negative stuff, including the “coal” comments have been timed to put Obama on the defensive substantively during the most important stretch. Guarantee you the coal stuff was held back until now by the campaign. To late for the Obamarama’s to effectively respond, and they are all already basking in their “victory!”

[Rebel Wolf]

He’s not. His support is all in NOVA and some inner city areas of the “Hood”. I could care less what the polls and pundits say. I’m HERE........They aren’t........

The ‘burbs and the rural areas will decide this election and they will go McCain/Palin.

[daniel885]

If McCain flips Pennsylvania (which he might with this coal story), gets Ohio and Florida plus holds on to North Carolina... he gets up to 268 electoral votes (and I think that’s where he’s at right now). If he can pull off a victory in Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, or New Mexico he wins... or maybe a surprise win in New Hampshire. (He can also tie it up with one electoral vote in Maine, which I hope doesn’t happen because that would be a nightmare.)

[cmt21]

Do you know what Rasmussen uses for his party affiliation in state polling?

[nhwingut]

I think you’re right on... He will flip PA, hold onto OH and FL, lose VA, CO, NV and NM.

And the great state of NH will once again come through for MAC.

That’s 272 and the win.

[zaker99]

Scott is being pulled kicking and screaming, but at least he’s moving. McCain has the momentum at just the right time.

[impeachedrapist]

I still have a hard time believing that Virginia can be so supportive of Obama.

It's not. McCain/Palin comfortably win VA.

[Yankee]

Because Fox’s poll shows a TWENTY PERCENT increase from 2004 for Democrats and a ZERO percent increase in Republican turnout from 2000.

Fox poll is GARBAGE.

I competely agree with your assessment but there's another reason. The FOX national horserace poll is conducted by Opinion Dynamics while the FOX state polls are by Rasmussen.

[GoMonster]

Florida is not tied..I don’t care what anyone says..If they have Florida tied then add 4 points to everything..McCain will win Florida by 4 points..

[napscoordinator]

If McCain flips Pennsylvania (which he might with this coal story),

I don't think that the people in “coal” were going to vote for Obama anyway...they already decided to vote for McCain because of Obama’s guns, God statement plus slamming small town folks. I don't think the coal statement will change too many minds that already were for McCain anyway. Now for Pennsylvania...I would not even bet a dollar on this state (which is mine)....it could go either way. I remember in 2000 it was so disappointing that Pennsylvania went for gore because George W thought he had it. Plus I know Governor Ridge was so embarrassed by the loss. However, Ridge was still picked for Homeland Security in 2003 so I guess President Bush understood. lol.

[Le Chien Rouge]

It’s Northern Virginia-—Arlington etc that is really plugging away for Obama-—the Tidewater area has a heavy concentration of black folk but they are balanced by the large military members......VA will be close....

[daniel885]

It’s seems more and more possible Obama might win the popular vote and McCain will win the electoral college.

[txrangerette]

I know the demographics of Colorado have changed.

But before they changed very much, already the Republican vote was being sold short in state polls.

I remember this. The last time Senator Allard ran for re-election he was well down in the polls. If memory serves he finally pulled to within a few points before the vote.

Early calls in CO had Allard losing. I don’t know if they were official calls, but they were strongly hinting of defeat.

I remember Allard warning them not to jump to conclusions, and saying that his reports showed they were doing well enough early on to project winning, when ALL the votes were counted.

When they WERE, true to his word, he was re-elected.

I will say only that before giving up on Colorado we might want to “count every vote”.

[daniel885]

I don't think that the people in “coal” were going to vote for Obama anyway...they already decided to vote for McCain because of Obama’s guns, God statement plus slamming small town folks. I don't think the coal statement will change too many minds that already were for McCain anyway. Now for Pennsylvania...I would not even bet a dollar on this state (which is mine)....it could go either way. I remember in 2000 it was so disappointing that Pennsylvania went for gore because George W thought he had it. Plus I know Governor Ridge was so embarrassed by the loss. However, Ridge was still picked for Homeland Security in 2003 so I guess President Bush understood. lol. It would be a shame if a candidate that said so many damning things against one state ended up carrying that state... the polls be damned... I don't see how Obama carries Pennsylvania

[pgkdan]

Virginia is not going to Obama. I've been making GOTV calls for a week and we're doing very well in VA.

The simple truth is that these polls all over sample democrats. The actual turnout in 2006 (A great year for dims) was GOP+3. Most polls have their sample set at between +6 and +9. I don't see McCain losing.