Posted on 11/03/2008 7:38:36 AM PST by MaverickElephant
Friends:
If you've been listening to the news and poll results this past week, you're probably thinking the election on Tuesday is a mere formality at this point, and that the outcome is all but pre-ordained.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
Did you know, for instance, that pollster John Zogby predicted Barack Obama would beat Hillary Clinton in the California Presidential Primary by 13 points?
She won by 9.6 percent. That's nearly a TWENTY-THREE POINT DIFFERENCE (result vs. poll prediction). The same exact thing happened in many other States.
How can any "professional" pollster be off by TWENTY-THREE PERCENT? Answer: they can't - unless they are either grossly incompetent, or have an agenda to influence the outcome of a race. And, firms like Zogby have been doing this a very long time, so draw your own conclusions as to whether it is incompetence or "push polling" to influence the outcome of an election.
Also - did you know that most polls (Zobgy, Rasmussen, Pew Research, CBS and most of the others) 'OVERSAMPLE' (ie: poll more) DEMOCRATS BY 8 TO 15 PERCENT? For instance, the latest ABC poll (if you look at the "internals") shows D: 37, R: 28. (?!!) That is a NINE point "oversampling". And, guess what? Obama was "ahead" by nine points in this poll - which exactly matches the oversampling percentages.
Pew Research's latest poll is "weighted" 39% D, 24% R, 30% Independent and 2% "no preference". And, surprise - with a FIFTEEN PERCENT WEIGHTING to the Dems, Obama is ahead by 15. (What a coincidence!)
Survey USA just put out another "overweighted" poll last night, having Obama up by THREE in Minnesota (not a state expected to go McCain/Palin). Yet, they "oversampled" Dems by SEVEN (39D/32R/25I). Yet, in the 2004 election, the actual turnout was 38/35/27. So, how on earth can they justify this type of sample? Easy - they can't.
And the REAL kicker - out just today from Gallup..(you've probably heard it on the news) - "Obama is ahead by ELEVEN Percent!! Election is O-V-E-R!". What they unfortunately do NOT tell you is this: they oversampled Democrats by TEN PERCENT! So, "best case" - Obama is up by ONE percent - well within the "Margin Of Error (MOE)" nationally.
Now, here's where it gets really interesting - did you know that the Mason Dixon state-by-state poll (among the most accurate in previous elections) shows McCain/Palin UP in key battleground states, and that Obama is not even at 50% in ANY of them? They believe McCain/Palin are up by 2 in Ohio. Up 1 in Missouri. Up 3 in North Carolina. But, I'm guessing that you probably haven't heard about ANY of this on CBS, NBC, MSNBC or ABC.
Pollsters attempt to justify this, by saying they expect a larger Democrat turnout this time around. Yet, history does not bear that out. In both the 2000 and the 2004 elections, the turnout for Dems vs. Republicans was "essentially" even (perhaps one or two points in either direction). And, in "early voting" currently happening across the country, there is no evidence of huge Democrat margins, either.
So, what could be behind this "oversampling" phenomenon?
In my opinion, the answer is simple: the media, the pollsters, and the pundits are all completely committed to do WHATEVER they can to assure an Obama victory - even at the risk of their own personal and professional reputations. So, they are "spinning" the story the best they can (even using inflated, inaccurate data) to demoralize Republicans, in a completely transparent attempt to suppress voter turnout on Tuesday for our party. Don't let them get away with it!!
Most of you know that the media has long held an abject hatred for the Republican party and our "traditional" American beliefs and values. There's ample evidence to support this and their blatant bias, and documenting that is not the purpose of this message. But suffice it to say - the media and the pollsters in general HATE the Republicans, and will do ABSOLUTELY ANYTHING to assure our complete destruction, defeat and humiliation. To them, this is not an election. It is a WAR for the soul and future direction of our country. (As a quick example, just watch Chris Matthews [MSNBC anchor] or Keith Olbermann [ditto], or Campbell Brown at CNN. Or Katie Couric at CBS. Or Brian Williams at NBC. Even the usually reliable Fox News Channel - outside of Bill O'Reilley and Sean Hannity (and a few others) have done everything they can to promote an Obama "win". [There's an excellent video on YouTube of MSNBC's Chris Matthews saying that Obama gives him a "tingle up his leg" - how's THAT for "objective reporting" from a supposedly "neutral" network?!]. NBC has been called "Obama campaign headquarters" by O'Reilley (and with good reason). And even the press core has turned on and publicly ridiculed MSNBC for their outrageously corrupt and laughable "reporting". Anyway, I digress..most agree that the media is "in the tank" for Obama - as are the pollsters. The point here is that YOU CANNOT TRUST THEM to report the 'truth' at this point, and the hard data bears this out).
PLEASE help us get the word out by forwarding to your friends, neighbors and anyone you know. This election is FAR from over and could easily go either way. Even here in XXX, where there are strong rumors that McCain/Palin are "within the margin of error". And PLEASE - BY ALL MEANS - GET TO THE POLLS ON TUESDAY!!
Hope you found this helpful, and that it's provided some insight. Thanks for listening.
Welcome to FR!
It’s broken glass time! Everybody turn out! Turnout is what will turn a loss into a win or a squeaker into a blowout! Let’s cream Obama!
It's an interesting way to forecast tomorrow, to see how well pollsters did in predicting the Hillary vs. Obambi races. I wonder which pollster did the best.
It seems to me that if there is still indeed a Bradley factor, it would have been most evident in those contests.
The oversampling’s been going on for weeks, if not months. Check out this link:
In many of these polls, the Obama lead is the same or less than the oversample of Dems. These polls are steaming piles of crap, and I’ll stand by that even if we lose tomorrow night. If they’re correct in predicting the winner, it will be like the psychic who claimed she “predicted” the Hindenburg disaster because she had a dream about a big fire a week before the incident.
Not to put too fine a point on it, the polls are not nonsense. If you take the data the pollsters collect and weight it using their formulas on voter turnout, the polls are accurate reflections of the data. The validity of the weighting factors creates the polling variation on the Dan Rather TANG document: polling data can be accurate but incorrectly skewed. 8-)
What the headlines are not telling you is that the pollsters' underlying assumptions on voter turnout are sheer nonsense. There is no scientific means of determining in advance the percentage of Demonrat voters vs. Pubbie voters in the general election. By ignoring historic voter turnout norms from 2000 and 2004, this year's polls are skewed and likely inaccurate.
There is no way to determine how the voters will vote for those who hangup when the pollsters call. An assumption is made that they will reflect the general population's leanings. Believe this one at your own risk.
Bottom line: the polls have entertainment value and this year (as in most years) give great comfort to the left. But the polls have NO predictive value whatsoever unless their turnout models happen to fall in line with the actual voting population.
Thanks. Welcome to you too.
Oops.. I meant that for MaverickElephant :)
WELCOME TO FR, FRiend!!
Big Bump!!
UNION VOTERS
PUMAS
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