Rove also had Ohio in the Zero column.
Rove is a numbers guy, and let's be honest, none of the public polls have good numbers for McCain. BUT as Michael Barone said on F&F this AM the polls are like impressionist paintings; the closer you get to them the more unclear they get.
McCain MUST win OH and VA. He also must win any two of these three: NV, CO, NH. (NV, NH combo results in a tie) OR win PA. As Rove said, McCain must flip a blue state. If McCain wins PA and holds all '04 blue states except NM, IA, NV, and CO he wins.
How much of this is Pollyanna wishful thinking, I can't say. Assume most of the undecideds go McCain. The real question is will the undecideds vote in the face of long wait times? They may be for McCain but are they dedicated to win or are they too uninformed to really be inconvenienced?