Lee County, FL (This seems to look really good for GOP)

11/1/08 | LS

[LS]

Link here: http://news-press.com/article/20081101/NEWS0107/81101028

[Zakeet]

Clickable Link

[LS]

Ok, if I read this right, it is 32,000 MORE likely GOP voters?

[avacado]

"As I read this, the "earlies" have Obama up by 1600..."

Actually that is Dems up by 1600 in the 64,000 early vote. We have no idea if every single Dem is voting Obama. Some of those Dems could be voting McCain/Palin, which is probable so this makes it even better!

[LS]

You are absolutely right. And I’ve said this so many times I shouldn’t have to be reminded.

[Diggity]

I agree. I would guess McCain probably got 15% of the Dem vote.

[Rudder]

142,100 early votes (64,000 early, 75,600 absentee) (35%): of the 64,000 early votes,

Confusing post at best. Two categories termed "early votes" and each have two different numbers.

[AHerald]

Too funny. Both sides claiming victory.

To Ray Troy, chairman of Lee County’s Democratic Executive Committee, those numbers were an indication Democratic candidate Barack Obama could win Florida’s 27 electoral votes.

Paul Reynolds, a committee chairman of Lee County’s Republican Executive Committee, said the small difference in the number of Republican and Democrat early voters indicated there was no chance Obama could carry Lee County.

Those results make the election look promising for Republicans, Reynolds said.

[Elpasser]

Florida has two separate categories: Live, early votes, and absentee ballots.

But having said that, I am confused about the data shown is postive for McCain.

[AHerald]

Closing tags post (Do we need to close open tags like the old days?) I goofed up somewhere on the italics.

[Phoenix11]

My take on this (and I could be way off), but I think Obama supporters are so gung-ho about voting for him that most were there on the first few days of early voting. Therefore, most of his votes in states that have early voting have already been cast. Take GA: Most of the early votes cast were done in Atlanta, an area we know will most likely favor Obama. The question remains for the states that do not allow early voting.

[LS]

That's what we are seeing in Dayton. We are up to 30% among the "early voters," but as my chairman says, those are 30% who won't be voting on election day.

And yes, we have sixty officially registered poll watchers to make sure they don't vote again.

So what I keep saying---no one is really getting this yet---is that election night is going to be vastly different than ever before: in the past, generally, R precincts came in early and everyone waited for the Wayne County type areas to deliver the death blow to the Rs. This year, the Dems are going to be substantially voted out before election day, and the majority of votes coming in will be R counties.

[tatown]

“Paul Reynolds, a committee chairman of Lee County’s Republican Executive Committee, said the small difference in the number of Republican and Democrat early voters indicated there was no chance Obama could carry Lee County.”

..................

How can this be spun as good news that Paul Reynolds is using the early numbers as ‘indication’ that Obama couldn’t carry Lee County (which was won by Bush in 2004 by +20-points). There should be NO way Obama should have any chance to carry this county regardless of how early voting looks.

Am I missing something with this?

[LS]

Yeah, that’s why you have to sift through. They have “early” votes that includes both walk-ins (”early”) and mail-ins (”absentee”).

[Paul8148]

What is the split with the Abstenne vote?

[mosesdapoet]

If uou want to help change the totals print either of these two articles up and pass em around http://www.theusmat.com/

[olrtex]

Why does the headline say, “This seems to look really good for GOP?” All the article reliably indicates is that early voting this year overwhelmed early voting in 2004. Otherwise, there is not enough data to make any reasonable guesses about anything. This might be good for the McCain-Palin ticket if early voting in this county is much greater than early voting in counties that voted for Kerry in 2004, and if the the Democrat/Republican/Other breakdown in this county is about the same as in 2004, when this county went heavily for Bush (assuming it did), but we do not know from this article.

What this article might indicate (but who knows) is that all parts of the electorate (not just left-wing Democrats) are highly motivated to vote this year. I hope so, since that might offset the assumption by some pollsters that Democrats will significantly improve their voting percentage this year.

This is a good day to pray for the future of our nation.

[Gorilla44]

Here’s the poll/absentee breakdown:

Lee County Democrats

Voted at polls - 21,721
Voted by absentee ballot - 24,283

Lee County Republicans

Voted at polls - 20,382
Voted by absentee ballot - 48,649

Lee County Independents

Voted at polls - 9,646
Voted by absentee ballot - 16,447

[Gorilla44]

The numbers from my above post were taken Friday at 4pm.

[LS]

In a deeply red county that went for Bush by 20%, and in which historically absentees are heavily R, I'd say, yeah, this is a lock. It's probably good for 30,000 additional McCain votes.

And that's without the normal caveat that McCain will win more D voters than Obama wins R voters.