My take is pretty similar to yours but my guess is that McCain will take VA, too.
PA is the key — to overcome BO’s taking CO, and 2 out of 3 from NM, IA and NV from Bush’s 2004 column. Even if McCain holds VA and IA, if he loses CO, NM and NV but doesn’t take PA, he’ll come up shy at 267.
McCain needs PA and NV.