Posted on 11/01/2008 4:44:51 PM PDT by LS
FYI... interesting assessment of the race by FReeper LS.
Great thread and analysis, Larry. Now that I’ve read everyone’s thoughts...here’s my report. I know many many folks in NY and NJ who are voting for McCain. Call it the Italian vote. ;)
Let me throw this out there. We are told to always follow the money, that is where you will find the truth.
We should be asking ourselves: Who has the biggest bag of money in this campaign? Who has been raising money in record amounts? Who wants that money?
There are a LOT of people who have become VERY rich off of “illegal” campaign contributions. BO probably has the biggest money laundering business EVER. He is a money making machine
No one wants to upset the apple cart do they? How about we show him winning in a landslide! We can manipulate the numbers enough to show he is winning in every state. The more we are on his side, the more money he will dump in our pockets. The MSM and well over 200 polling firms have got in on the action. They have been taking money from this guy for almost two years now.
Bottom line is this is about money. The people will speak on November 4th. McCain will win and the money party will come to an end.
The question then becomes, what are the characteristics of the sampled population? Well, for starters, they first need to agree to answer polling questions! This, in a situation where the questioner is anonymous but the respondent is known. Forget party affiliation weighting, voter type (eg registered, likely, etc) or even honesty/lying. No, the real driving issue is whether or not the respondent agrees to participate in the first place.
And this is where polling has gone horribly wrong. When Gallup started out, indeed for generations thereafter, respondents were highly flattered that their opinion was sought out and valued. It's only been recently through the democratization of the press via the Net that the bloom, so to speak, has worn off.
Now, people regard pollsters with suspicion, and for good reason: what happened to Joe the Plumber has resonated with millions of walkaday Americans. This video provides a great demonstration of the hostility average voters display towards those perceived as being snarky liberals.
So how come we don't hear about decline-to-answers or hang-ups? Because Gallup and the other pollsters CAN NOT make any statistically valid prediction about their behavior - they simply are not part of the sampled respondents. Gallup, et al are charged with assessing the results of actual respondents, not those who choose not to participate.
It is anyone's guess what percentage of contacts decline; it's also anyone's guess as to surmise what is meant by these actions. That's where intuition comes into play - it's a pure gut level reaction, but this poster believes these people are McC voters. No one can say for sure since there isn't any valid basis - after all, they refused to participate - so in this case, it's art, not science.
2006 was the worst. The networks where calling races too quickly.
In 2002, I picked every senate race except Thune's last second loss to 500 Indian votes; in 2004, I picked every competitive senate race (including Allard, who was behind 5 points going into election day), and missed one.
In 2006, I missed all of the senate races except Santorum. In retrospect, every one of these was VERY close. The number I heard was 35,000 votes would have kept the Senate for the GOP.
So there you are.
Not necessrily. How many of those 50,000 Democrats who voted early this year voted, but not early, four years ago? The net might be less than 50,000. But yeah. Obama needs to make up 100,000 votes (Bush's approximate margin of victory in 2004). That's hard to do in a relatively small state like Colorado.
Those are words I’d enjoy hearing the MSM say.
“I say again, ignore the polls!”
Thanks, I needed that! I’ve been trying to ignore them, but sometimes it’s just hard not to. I’m watching college football now, to get me away from the election!! I’ll be voting with excitement in MD on Tuesday, with my neighbor who is dressing up like Sarah to go with me!! Again, thanks for your words of encouragement!!
I’m still putting the odds 60-40 to Barack Odingo.
And I'm putting strong odds that if ODumbass wins, the economy will tank for real. Not a scripted selloff fueled by irrational fear (and a little bit of shorting by Soros & company), but a genuine lack of investment. A totally democRAT government is guaranteed to seek ways to steal the wealth from the earners so that they can continue to buy the votes of the deadbeats. That's their trademark.
The hints at robbing 401K's to provide new "revenue streams" is of particular interest here. I, along with many, would gladly take the 10% penalty to keep MY earnings out of the hands of the government. If Obambi wins, count on an actual crash. Guaranteed.
You just don’t know how you are helping me sleep tonight. This has been one of the scariest elections I have ever experienced. We kind of wanted Obama over Hillary to be the Dem candidate mainly because we thought he would be easier to beat, until more started being revealed about this guy. It’s just not OK for him to be our leader...it is and would be dangerous for generations. Today he claimed change was coming to not only America but to the world. That statement alone scares me.
Thanks for posting your note. IT is helping me and many tonight online.
It becomes more scientific if you know the demographic of the refusers. I have read in a few places that rural voters are the largest group refusing to participate. Rural voters are overwhelmingly conservative. They are much less gullible and not easily manipulated. They don't like or trust the MSM and associate polls with the MSM.
If the only GOP responders a pollster can get are urban/suburban ones, the poll is about as valid as one which could get only rural Democrats to respond.
The only consolation is that if he wins, the slimy, simpering libs will be in front of us on the firing squad line, because they are always the first ones killed.
Thanks LS... I am so grateful for your analysis. I pray that PA can be delivered - and I think there is a chance. If it comes thru, a seismic shift will occur that will have the pundits shaking their heads for months. As others have noted, the refusal rate has been high on the GOP side which in itself will skew the poll. And - purely subjective here - I believe there will be a large number of voters who will change their mind in the booth. It will be that nagging question of, “who can I trust?”. For more than a few, it will tilt towards McCain.
Now, let’s hope for a stable market on Monday. I love your comments about the relentless campaigning of Sarah and the deliberate plodding of JMcC. I pray that you are dialed in, my friend.
I predict that the election will go to McCain 55 to 44.
Congratulation President McCain.
I am with you. McCain/Palin gets 308.
Thank you Professor. Get some more gigs on C-Span, please?
I’m in NH and keep having the same weird experience:
I wear a large McCain/Palin button and also a Veteran’s for McCain sticker on my sweatshirt. MANY folks come up to me and almost whisper “Go McCain” as if we’re part of some secret society - and this is NEW HAMPSHIRE!
For whatever reason, I think there may be a large number of folks who are afraid to say what they really think of O-Barry and we may see something quite surprising Tuesday.
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