[NRG1973]

Thanks for clarifying. Thats huge. I wonder if Obamas campaign is blackmailing Rasmussen to use those numbers. If those unrealistic Dem oversamplings are used nationwide in polls it would create complacency among Democrat voters (eg. "Why should I bother to vote Barack has it in the bag"). If Dems fail to vote on Tuesday that might help the GOP downticket...lets hope so.

[GoSarah]

Ras internals aren’t as divorced from reality in the 4% poll, so this time it’s only about a 5% sauce.

What changed: Obama is now leading with Is by a 12% margin; the poll before this one, McCain was winning them 6% with the previous PA poll. That’s OK because Kerry won the Is in PA by 17%.

Anyway, the polls are all still crap.

[GoSarah]

My bad! I said “only 5% sauce”, but it’s too early in the morning to be working with numbers :-)

There’s still 7% sauce, because it was a 4 point O lead that would be 3 point McCain lead in 2000 models.

I hope the unrealistic Dem oversamplings also lend to voter depression. They will see long lines and decide to blow voting off. College kids in particular will not wait more than about 30 minutes.