[NRG1973]

The PA poll with 7 points leading shows 8% Dem advantage relative to 2004. Should’ve been clearer in the original post — Ras gives his state polls the same or more sauce that he gives to national polls.

Let me make sure that I understand what you are saying. If I'm reading your last post correct you are saying that the PA state poll has an 8% Democrat advantage versus the 2004 actual. Is that correct??? If so, its even better than what I thought was in your earlier post.

[GoSarah]

correct.

I took the R/D/I samples from that 7% poll and normalized them to 2000 and 2004 R/D/I ratios. Even under the 2000 turnout model for PA, McCain won. Actually, come to think of it, I didn’t even try using it with the 2004 R/D/I ratio for PA, but I’m sure it’s higher.

I’ll go run the numbers for this poll now.

[GoSarah]

OK, just ran the numbers. PA R/D/I split in 2004 didn’t differ significantly than 2000, so the numbers are close.

Using 2004 R/D/I model in PA, McCain wins 50.77 - 47.21 with the current Ras numbers.

Using 2000 R/D/I model in PA, McCain wins 50.43 - 47.54 with current Ras numbers.