Zogby had Kerry and Bush tied at 47 the Friday before the election (http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=915).
Bush won by three points. Zogby underestimated Bush's support because he used party ID figures from the 2000 exit polls, and thus did not take into account the increase in GOP party ID between 2000 and 2004.
His use of party ID figures from 2004 exit polls for this election should actually be underestimating Obama's support because of the increase in Dem party ID since 2004.
Please provide your citation that Zogby is using 2004 party IDs.
It must have been a swing state poll that I remembered seeing.
Anyway,are you then saying McCain is pretty much screwed?