[ElkGroveDan]

It's important for him to be over 50%. In those states where he is under 50% he will be in trouble.

If Obama gets 48 or 49% of the vote he will win.

[TheGeezer]

If Obama gets 48 or 49% of the vote he will win.

Not necessarily. A national average of 49% may not translate into an electoral college victory.

[Reeses]

If Obama gets 48 or 49% of the vote he will win.

Gore got 51% and lost so it's possible.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

It's important for him to be over 50%. In those states where he is under 50% he will be in trouble.

If Obama gets 48 or 49% of the vote he will win.

If. And just because the "polls" say it doesn't necessarily mean it's true because of internal biases in the polls, and because answering an "if the election were today, how would you vote?" question to a stranger over the phone is not the same as going to the secret ballot on election day and actually voting.

And even then, the Electoral College is structurally tilted toward the population of the smaller states whose two EV corresponding to their two senators is a significant portion of their total EV. And not too many of the low-EV states are "blue."