Posted on 10/26/2008 6:13:00 PM PDT by Chet 99
Yeah, Steve, and that miracle is named Sarah Palin.
Increase your home owner’s insurance, pack the irreplaceables, call in sick and head out of town before sundown November 4. Don’t go back until the all clear is signaled.
It is going to be interesting.
No one talked about it, but it was real here in OH. Blackwell’s last polling numbers were -6 (high) and -14 (low). He lost by -25. Steele’s variance was much less, about 2 points. The only race I’ve found where Bradley was no noticeable factor at all was Lynn Swann in PA, and I attribute that to the fact that he was a sports icon who was viewed not as black or white but as “A Steeler.”
I think if McCain gets to 47%, he’s ok. The undecideds will probably make up the remaining 3%.
lol. Well we could all say we are UNDECIDED. HAHAHAHA.
“We need to start a movement; that Conservatives will not participate in polls.”
I agree with the first sentence. After the election, regardless of how it will turn out, I intend on trying to create such a movement starting with FR. The gist of this will be to announce that Republicans/Conservatives will tell the pollsters that they are voting Democratic. This should be a public movement that everyone is aware of. If successful, this will neutralize pollsters by rendering them useless. This will require participation by Conservatives.
You don’t agree with my second sentence :)
Let me amend. I agree with the second sentence as to what is happening now.
I was thinking of what should happen in a new strategy after the election. For that we need conservatives to participate but intentionally render the polls meaningless.
Right now, the better polls are showing its somewhere between a 3 to 5 point race. Basically, its roughly 48-43 at worst. Assume this guy is right, and roughly 80% of the undecideds break toward McCain, and its 50-50. However, this assumes the pollsters have the party breakdown, PERFECT. Historically, this is very unlikely. Historically, they've always undercounted Republicans by at least 2 to 4% even in the better polls.
Hence, using what to my mind are fairly conservative assumptions, and assuming no further movement in the polls toward McCain -unlikely given that the polls seem to be moving in his direction, right now- and it seems to me McCain would win if the election were held today by at least 1 to 2 percent -either 50.5-49.5 or 51-49.
Now we can make money from the inaccuracies in the polls.
Intrade has Contracts for Beating the Spread on Polling Numbers
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2115426/posts
I agree 47 is the magic number. 46 at the absolute lowest (if Obama is under 50). I’m not talking about RCP though. I would say Battleground or Rasmussen I suppose. McCain needs to push HARD - this is the last full week.
Republicans should boycott polls and socialist DBM talk shows like Meet the Press, CNN, and the MSNBC whores.
All Republican spokesman should just ignore socialist media journalists period.
DBM just wants to get in our face - so let’s just get out of theirs. Besides their audience numbers are so pathetic that nothing is really lost by ignoring them.
They’d soon start feeling pretty stupid just talking to their own idiotic in-bred selves.
We might even get some respect. You only miss it when you don’t have it anymore.
It looks like Obama is at or over 50% in all polls except IBD.
Why not just buy the McCain contract to win? He wins, you get an 800% return at current odds.
Because you could still make money if McCain loses but beats the spread.
yeah when do we get to riot?
now watch all the pollster make sure they show Obama at 50 percent or above...
i disagree... conservatives need to become pollsters... and be damn good at it...
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