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You said he couldn't win without VA. I said he could. Now you're upping the ante to VA and PA. But McCain still could win then.

If Obama wins VA (13 EVs) and PA (21), he still wouldn't win based on electoral math. That would carry Bush's 286 EV total down to 273 (-13 from VA; Kerry won PA four years ago, so that's a Dem hold). So McCain could still win rather comfortably, but he'd have to do an unlikely sweep of FL (27), OH (20), NC (15), MO (11), IA (7), NM (5), MN (10), NH (4), CO (9), NV (5), WI (10) and MI (17), thereby giving him 314 electoral votes (44 more than needed). (underlined means states Kerry won in 2004)

The problem with such equations is that the states generally move as groups. So for Obama to win PA and VA, but lose OH, doesn't really make sense. So for WI, MN, PA and IA (and maybe even MI) to still be competitive at this point in the 2008 race, while Obama's numbers aren't looking good in OH, spells some major problems for the Obamessiah. Doesn't mean he can't win, just that his chances are getting smaller.

So for WI, MN, PA and IA (and maybe even MI) to still be competitive at this point in the 2008 race, while Obama's numbers aren't looking good in OH, spells some major problems for the Obamessiah.

You really need to step away from the crack pipe. Michigan is not nearly competitive. McCain left there a couple of weeks ago. It's solid for Obama. What makes you think McCain is competitive in WI, MN, PA, or IA. Be specific. Even OH is a toss-up at best for McCain.

You keep making these optimistic statements but don't really back them up with anything. You're sounding more and more like Comical Ali with every post.

McCain is not going to win any of MN, WI, MI, NM, or IA. Try your map again without those. Those are not the battleground states. McCain has to win VA and PA and CO, and none of those are in the bag by any means.

Every time I play with the map, I come out with a tie or with Obama winning.

McCain needs to take a strong Obama state to win.