Posted on 10/21/2008 5:51:17 AM PDT by bmweezer
Florida and Ohio - two "red" states from 2000 and 2004 have been trending (slowly) away from Barack Obama in recent days, with recent polls in both states showing modest John McCain leads developing (See Florida - here and here; Ohio - here.) While this is encouraging news for the GOPers, as this map shows, it might be too-little, too-late thanks to one state, Virginia:
Big assumption - NC, MO and yes, PA go red Even assuming that Pennsylvania goes "red" - which is a huge assumption that isn't yet backed up by recent polls, but seems something that the McCain/Palin camp still believes is possible (they are both visiting the Keystone state on almost a daily basis) -, without Virginia, Barack Obama still wins 270-268. And this, assumes that like Pennsylvania that Missouri too goes "red" despite recent polling, as does North Carolina, two traditional "red" states that have been flirting with Obama for weeks, if you believe the polls.
No, without Virginia, McCain needs to look elsewhere, and that seems to be Nevada (5 electoral votes) or New Hampshire (4 electoral votes). Either one, assuming the aforementioned scenario, would give McCain/Palin enough votes and cause such a massive exportation by liberals to Canada that this country would be better off for decades to come.
Our advice, for the next fourteen days watch the polls in FL, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA and VA, all but PA have been "red' in recent elections. If John McCain can finally security the majority of these, he just might win.
Mason Dixon has McCain up two in VA.
I believe the polls are crap.
There was a man (Carl) on Rose and Quinn this morning (Ohio talk show, radio) who is one of their regular sources (I gather) and who knows people INSIDE the Republican party. He says the Republican internals are showing:
PA: MCCAIN =51, BO =36
OH: MCCAIN = 47, BO =41
MO: MCCAIN =44, BO =40
Here is the thread: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110973/posts
Anyone know anything about this Carl? If so, it looks like the people in PA don’t much like to be laughed at for “clinging to guns and God”. Maybe the NRA influence there is greater than we imagine.
HOPE springs eternal.
“Mason Dixon has McCain up two in VA.”
If this is a recent poll, this is very good news. I was waiting for the MD to come out. The Rass O+10 BS poll of VA had me a little concerned.
This article appears to have given up Colorado and New Mexico as lost causes, which is insane. Either one of those states is more winnable than Pennsylvania is. Obama will almost certainly win all the states Kerry took in 2004 plus flip Iowa from red to blue. If he can also win Colorado and New Mexico then the election’s over. McCain needs to keep Colorado, a better shot than New Mexico, in his camp and just retain the rest of the states that Bush took, including Virginia. If he does that then he’s off to the White House.
I’m not believing McCain’s up 15 in Pennsylvania. If their internals were showing that then they wouldn’t be stumping the state as hard as they are. They’d be camping out in Missouri and Ohio.
I live in rural south-western Virginia in the Blue Ridge near Virginia Tech. The McCain bumper stickers and yard signs easily outnumber Obama’s 5-1...and probably moreso than that.
If we loose it...only because of the Richmond transplants. The coast is heavily republican due to the naval base for one, and the rural areas are heavily McCain. God PLEASE, don’t let Obama take the reins of this nation! My family was here fighting in the Revolutionary War, hate to think my generation will be the ones to see it fall from grace.
Only Mason Dixon poll I can find is from Sept 29-Oct.1. McCain + 3
Anybody who starts talking about polls or uses polls to make a point needs to have ther head examined. Polls are garbage and if you use garbage to make your point then your point is garbage.
What I find surprising (and I am one of Murtha’s rednecks here), is that McCain and Palin are still here in the state so often. If the state was lost, they wouldn’t be here, but they are. So perhaps the internal polls are accurate, or at least painting a better picture than the national polls are showing.
I have no doubt that their internal polls are more optimistic than the public polls and that as a result they believe the state is winnable. But up by 15 points? Nonsense. If their polls show that then Pennsylvania is in the bag and they’d be campaigning elsewhere. They don’t have time or money to waste on a sure thing.
I am very concerned about the 2nd Amendment under 0bama, so I hope they are hammering VA and PA with ads. Can anyone on the ground confirm?
By the way, I am assuming you meant to say the PA numbers were Mac 51 & O 46
If McCain has secured FL and OH, then he has secured VA. That’s just the way it is. This means that he needs to nail down CO and NV. I think Sarah will help him Big Time there.
Mine too. We came to Virginia as Scots Irish and moved down to South Carolina after the war.
I’d hate to think of the sacrifices for nothing.
I listened to Quinn and Rose too. If these internals are half-right (meaning that yes, McCain has PA and OH in his sights) and the GOP wins this thing, which will come as a shock to many, many, people, can you imagine the main streamers. It will be a STOLEN election for sure.
Oh I seriously doubt those numbers..lol
I think McCain and Obama are close in PA, with Obama probably leading by 3 or 4 points. Within the MOE.
Yep. All McCain has to do is hold on the the rest of the Bush states from 2004 (sans New Mexico and Iowa).
Yep..Colorado is the key. The media seems to forget McCain has an advantage in the Electorial College, where he could lose two states from Bush 2004(New Mexico & Iowa), and still win. Obama has to pick up another red state to win. McCain just needs to hold a traditionally red state to win (Colorado).
I live in Bedford county VA., and yesterday I drove from Bedford to Alexandria to pick up a motorcycle (about 200 miles), pretty much through the middle of the state, through Lynchburg, Charlottesville, Culpeper. Even in the DC suburbs of Alexandria & Arlington , which would be Obama Bin Lyin’s stronghold, I saw plenty of McCain signs. Roanoke , where Obama was a few days ago is also a strong liberal area, but again there seems to be strong McCain support. The more rural areas that I drove through yesterday were almost 100% McCain, judging by signs. The Mason Dixon poll from last week shows McCain up by three here in the Old Dominion, and I am confident that will hold up come election day.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.