That is a common misconception on FR. The polls were about right on Bush-Kerry. However, they could be wrong this time. I think McCain and Sarah need to spend more time in VA instead of campaigning in states that are a lot less likely to pay off.
Posted on 10/16/2008 5:48:56 PM PDT by UCAL
snl doing funny skit on the debate and joe the plumber
Well this is Virginia in a middle class neighborhood.
And that's the key - FINAL averages. They can publish whatever crap they want early on, but then they straighten up a bit toward the end. And curiously, as Ann Coulter covered in her recent article in FrontPage mag, if the pollsters err in Presidential races they almost universally favor the Dems. Weird.
Then why did Bush gain votes in 2004 over 2000? Over the last 3 presidential elections, the trend has been all Republicans.
20.0 ............. African-American
73.0 ............. White
7.0 ............. Other
“One item of interest in the internals. 48.7% of respondents have 4-year college degree or more. I’m pretty sure that’s way too high. Could explain the Sarah Palin responses.”
Yup.
Bachelor’s degree or higher, pct of persons age 25+, 2000 Virginia 29.5% USA 24.4%
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/51000.html
That is a common misconception on FR. The polls were about right on Bush-Kerry. However, they could be wrong this time. I think McCain and Sarah need to spend more time in VA instead of campaigning in states that are a lot less likely to pay off.
What do you know about VA, newbie?
Yup, just as I thought, they polled their friends, parents and teachers...
Based on the 2004 results Kerry got 32% of the white votes and President Bush 68%. In order for Obama to be at 49% then he is getting 38% of the white vote and I also gave him 95% of the black vote (Kerry got 87% in 2004). I doubt very much that Obama the black left wing candidate is going to get more white votes than Kerry did in Virginia. That is why I asked if they show what % of white voters they called in liberal Firfax and in the conservative counties.
>>And that’s the key - FINAL averages. They can publish whatever crap they want early on, but then they straighten up a bit toward the end.<<
See the chart in post #88. The RCP average favored Bush throughout Sept. and Oct.
In 2006 the census bureau reports that women in Virginia are 50.8% of the population. In 2004 54% of the Virginia electorate were women and 46% were men. The 58% women in this poll is very high.
The difference this time around is Kerry had abandoned VA about a month before the election. Obama and the DNC/DCCC are pouring a ton of money into VA, probably through Election Day, so McCain/Palin must respond. Whether this proves to be a smart or foolish use of Dem money remains to be seen. But all these arguments about northern VA turning blue, Virginia turning purple or blue, Democrats starting to win races... they've been around for many elections.
which means the GOP is undersampled by 10%.
Oversampled women 58-42.
Nothing to worry about.
Oversampled women are PUMAs.
Sorry, my mistake. I didn’t know what the VA polls were.
Thanks, but no apology necessary. I should have specified VA polls when replying to Alter’s national polls comment.
Rasmussen poll had BO up by only 3 in VA on Monday. CNN/Time had BO up by 10.
They can’t all be right. Maybe all of them are wrong.
Yep, way too high.
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