Surprised? It's a figure you probably won't see reported elsewhere. That's because Gallup's news release, and the story picked up in the media, highlights the wider margin among all TOTAL registered voters ... not people whom Gallup's historical methods indicate are actually likely to vote. It's as if whether people are actually going to vote is unimportant to the election results. Not coincidentally, those total-registered-voter numbers give Obama a wider 6% margin.
Current polls showing a wide Obama advantage are of this less consequential overall registered voters, not of the vital likely voter figures. (With the exception of the outlyer CBS/NYT poll, which doesn't bother asking whether respondents are likely to vote. They simply extrapolate that figure from the total registered voters.) Polls which show a tight race tend to be of likely voters.
The difference is not inconsequential. Studies show that polls can create a bandwagon effect as people want to associate with the winner, and that could alter the outcome of this election.
It is important that we demand that the media identify, not just the poll total, but whether that total is from people who are likely to vote.
-William Tate, www.atimelikethis.us
Two things, people watched last night when he hit Obama with his alliances, Obama acted like an ass, and knew he was nailed. The smirks and head shaking was obvious.
He also was nailed by Joe the Plumber.
Keep exposing him McCain. People need to know.
Maybe people don't like the slick Obama as much as previously thought....or the "share the wealth" comment hit home.
Maybe people don't like the slick Obama as much as previously thought....or the "share the wealth" comment hit home.