You might but no candidate that wanted win would want a fake poll. The last thing a candidate wants to do is lie to himself. Every candidate needs to know exactly where he stands with voters and what he needs to do to increase his support.
Internal polls are not just about who is ahead and who is behind. They have information about where the candidate stands with various groups of voters. And which groups offer the best chance of improving his numbers. They are designed to tell a candidate what to say and whom to say it to.
Voters lie about voting. Everbody says they is going to vote even when they are not. You can’t just ask if someone is going to vote. They will lie to the pollster. Internal polls are very accurate on turn out. They make great efforts to determine who will and who will not vote.
Media campaigns use what is called enthusiasm questions to determine who will vote. If a person is for McCain but is not enthusiasic enough the media pollsters count that person as a non voter. This year many people are far more Anti Obama than they are pro McCain so the media pollsters are saying that 41 to 43 percent of the voters will be democrats and only 27 to 29 percent will be republicans.
That is based on enthusiasm. No doubt both the Obama and McCain polls show that lots of less than supportive McCain voters are going to vote to keep Obama from being president.
If one uses the 2006 turn out one gets 38 percent Democrats, to 35 percent Republicans and 27 percent independents. That gives Obama a 2 point lead. But if the anti obama voters are as motivated as I think they are it maybe 38 percent democrats to 38 percent Republicans and 24 percent independents. But if the younger voters for Obama vote as younger voters always do, then it could be 35 percent Democrats to 38 percent republicans and 27 percent independents. It that is the case them McCain wins an easy victory.
One thing for sure Biden and the Clintons drew just 3,000 people in the democratic town of Scranton PA. Two days later Sarah drew 6,000 people. In 1948 Truman was 20 points behind in the polls. But every where Truman went he out drew Dewey and on election day Truman won.
Interesting stuff. I don’t think there’s any way on God’s green Earth that turnout resembles the 2006 (off year) level. I fully expect 2004 levels - which ended up with 37% Dem, 37% GOP, 26% Indies. Obama can’t win with those numbers. And you’re right, if the youth vote disappoints yet again, then we may be looking at a strong electoral defeat of the Obamessiah.