I think you are understating this problem.
People can say what they want about the Obama ground game but there is zero empirical evidence to suggest that the Democrats could have even the Rasmussen 5% advantage. The best reasonable guess to favor them is 3% based on 2006.
Even that guess is a weak one because congressional elections are not good predictions for voter turnout since it is so much higher in Presid years.
Moreover, does anyone really think that less than 5% of dems are going to vote for mcCain? Does anyone think that less than 5% of dems will sit it out to protest Hillary’s loss?
I have never in my life seen so many angry democrats eager to vote against the nominee. I think these combined numbers could easily be toward 30%.
Last week I watched and angry black female supporter of Clinton back an entire hallway of Obama supporters into a small corner with her vociferous complains about civil rights violations committed by Obama workers during the primaries. The media does not cover this but Dems are keenly aware of this. It left a mark and as the more crass are want to say, “payback is a b****”
That is going to be very true in November.
I think the media knows this and they are screwing with the numbers big time.
I would have loved watching that black lady and Clinton supporter back a group of Oabamtons into a hallway corner. It would have been awesome on you Tube. Bless that women.
One poll said 26% of Clinton Dems will be going McCain but I think it may be 30 to 35%. We can grumble about McCain and we WILL fight with him as President but he is acceptable. Many Clinton Dems hate Obama with a passion.
Obama, and even more his supporters, were horrible to Hillary voters and Hillary. He treated Hillary okay but his supporters are incredibly nasty. They burned bridges to hillary Voters aka PUMAs.
You just know that Bill and Hillary hate Obama. Bill can be a buffoon but he is shrewd, calculating and ruthless. Obama humiliated him in front of the world.