In other words, McCain is almost certainly ahead given the “Bradley effect” and the tendency of these organizations to vastly oversample Dems. If I were Obama’s campaign guy, and I was looking at the internals I’ve been seeing about Obama trailing KERRY among Catholics, Jews, even blacks (!!), suburbanities, I’d be very concerned.
I agree. I would add that this poll's party ID distribution is getting much closer to what a likely voter distribution actually looks like. Still not there yet, but if you reduce Democrats by 2 more points and add the number of Independents needed to get to 100%, they're there. Which brings me to the other point I want to add: McCain is doing better with Independents than Dubya did four years ago.