Polls tightening: Hotline within 1! Battleground within 4!

Real Clear Politices ^

[The G Man]

Battleground has it 49-45 today. Obama lead by 7 yesterday.

Hotlinehas it 45-44.

[cajungirl]

Reminds me of Cheney who really helped GWB,,his performance at the debates was magnificent.

Camille Paglia has a very good article on Palin where she praises her and bashes the feminists for their narrow ideological view of women. She sees Palin as an authentic frontier woman.

I love Sarah.

[9YearLurker]

Yes, Brokaw could have reined Obama in if he’d wanted to, just by starting to say ‘30 seconds’ and then ‘time’s up’. But the more time he let Obama steal the more Obama showed himself to be the vapid smooth talker that he is.

[kesg]

In other words, McCain is almost certainly ahead given the “Bradley effect” and the tendency of these organizations to vastly oversample Dems. If I were Obama’s campaign guy, and I was looking at the internals I’ve been seeing about Obama trailing KERRY among Catholics, Jews, even blacks (!!), suburbanities, I’d be very concerned.

I agree. I would add that this poll's party ID distribution is getting much closer to what a likely voter distribution actually looks like. Still not there yet, but if you reduce Democrats by 2 more points and add the number of Independents needed to get to 100%, they're there. Which brings me to the other point I want to add: McCain is doing better with Independents than Dubya did four years ago.

[ScottinVA]

But, I think McCain finished with a great closing statement. It was very strong.

[jveritas]

Do not waste your time and energy on polls even if it is good for our side. They are biased against McCain and they are not capturing what is happening on the ground. McCain is going to win.

[Puppage]

And the Dallas Cowboys are trending 53-0

Yeah, 53 arrests / 0 convictions :-)

[NYC Republican]

Exactly... See my tagline

[SoFloFreeper]

G Man, the pollsters are playing rope-a-dope with Republicans. Watch. Soon, BHO will have another 6 point lead or so.

[rep-always]

I personally don’t believe it. McCain is up with white men bigtime.

[jveritas]

The issue that Obama is tied with McCain among men is the most ridiculous idea in the universe and shows you how these polls are totally detached form reality and against all historical trends. Clinton who won the Presidency twice lost the men vote twice. Gore and Kerry lost the men vote badly. But now according the biased polls Obama is tied with McCain among men. Just be serious people and get back to the real world.

[SoFloFreeper]

How do you account for massive ‘rat voter fraud? That gives BHO a big edge.

[The G Man]

[avacado]

Good analysis and I agree. McCain has the PUMA factor which former DNC Committee Lynn Rothschild who is now supporting McCain said that at least 6 million of the 18 million women Hillary votes will be voting for McCain. So McCain has the voters that GWB had, plus the PUMA, plus the Bradley Effect, plus more Independents.

I see McCain with at least 53% of the vote.

[LS]

He never was there. EVER. It was a manipulation done by adding 5% to 9% more Dems to the samples, sort of like turning Bourbon chicken into Bourbon with a little chicken.

[rep-always]

He was here in Florida Monday and Tuesday. Monday in Boca Raton, a bastion of liberalism. Yesterday in Ft. Lauderdale, another bastion.

[pburgh01]

Excellent analysis! But some here, the poll trolls and you know who you are will say you are full of horse excrement. Why because of the facts or logic...nah because they "feel" this election is slipping away and(or) besides their protestations ARE for Obama and here exclusively to demoralize conservatives. They post exclusively in the poll threads and only the ones which show grim news. I think the Mods should ban them, not because they hold a contrarian point of view but because they have nothing intelligent to contribute.

A favorite canard of the schmucks touting defeat is that all us pollyannas were saying the same thing in 2006. In 2006 most of us realized it was going to be a bad year, hardly anyone with half a brain was thinking it was going to end well. The metrics were bad for that election. This election though as you stated has a number of factors that on a basic common sense level point to a McCain victory. The tangibles you stated are spot on and I think the intangibles also. The Democrats really overreached this election with a brazen and in your face confrontational Marxist like Obama. He is a very polarizing figure. To use a bad analogy, he's the 1996 of Newt Gingrich on the left. Anecdotally people are reacting much more strongly than they did for Kerry or Gore. I know this is a cliche but besides the militant homosexuals, college students, old school communists and minorities I don't see how math adds up to 50-52% of the voting electorate as the polls show. It just doesn't, not because I want it to be so, it just is.

[The G Man]

jveritas:

I don't trust the polls. However, many others do and it's impacted morale. We need to shout good news from the rooftops imo.

G

[jveritas]

Exactly right. It is just impossible that Obama will lead or tie among men when Bill Clinton lost the men vote twice and Gore and Kerry lost the men vote very badly. In what universe is Obama going to perform better among men or among white voters in general than Gore or Kerry did? In the parallel universe of extremely biased polls that are totally detached from the real world.

[SaintDismas]

Love my Cowboys dude, but in actuality, that may be truer than you think. Prolly only Tony, Jason, Zach Thomas and Nick Folk or any other of the mere handful of white players may or may not vote for Mac. Sad but true I’m afraid.

Still love my Cowboys.

[9YearLurker]

Wouldn’t she make a great female James Bond, winking knowingly at the camera now and then?