Right Norman.
I just wish people here realized that RAS , Gallup, and Battleground all screwed up in their final 2000 Tracking polls.
Ok, point taken. However I think we really are behind now. 8 points? Maybe, maybe not. The weightings they use do favor Dem by a wide margin however I think there is a case for the GOP being less popular than 2006 and not more. I could be wrong but look at the economy. Eveyone blames it on Bush and the GOP. Intellectually I can’t see McCain ahead until he gets an economic agenda out there, and differentiates himself widely from Bush (I didn’t think he’d have to do this until now). The good news is I think he will have it out tomorrow for the debate.
Rasmussen and Battleground did. I remember Gallup pretty much nailing it (and detecting the Gore surge in the final weekend before other pollsters did). Gallup also pretty much nailed the 2004 election as well.
The only way they screwed up was by predicting that Bush would beat Gore by a lot more than he finally did. Gore did better than expected. That does not really compute with the held opinion that these polls are Democratic-friendly, one could argue that in 2000 these same polls were too Bush and GOP friendly.