GW/Battleground was showing 3% Saturday and is now at +7% Obama.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/BG_100608_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf
Whatever I think about the polling methods or party ID weighting, it is the TREND within those methodologies that is disturbing. Unless all of these polling firms are cooking their numbers, the trends are not looking good.
What it boils down to is that Palin was a godsend for the Republican base. She energized it like no other could. But, she is a polarizing figure who probably has had a similar effect on the other side. She probably brought many Hillary Democrats who were grumbling about their close primary back into the fold, and it now appears that Independents are not really that fond of the McCain/Palin combination as of yet. Gallup’s tracker is up next.
The good news is that this election is probably harder to poll than previous elections, what with many people going cell phone only, increased call screening, disenchantment with politics in general, etc. There is also no way Obama would end up with a 7% margin in the end, even if he wins. The natural tightening that will no doubt occur before the election can become a sprignboard if it is significant enough to look like a weakening of Obama right before people go to the polls.
GW/Battleground changed there TRACKING poll formula to give Obama a 4 point advantage over night .
Yes, read how the lefty at the polling group demanded the formula get changed !
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/battleground_drops_party_weigh.php
These tracking polls with guessed inflated Obama turnout
are a JOKE NOW.
There is nothing to TRACK if GW/Battle, REas and Gallup
changed there FORMULA !!!!!