Posted on 10/06/2008 6:33:32 AM PDT by CatOwner
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This is the highest level of support ever recorded for Obama and is his largest lead of the year. It also continues a remarkable twenty-five days in a row where the Democrat’s support has never declined by even a single point. The Democratic candidate has gained six full percentage points of support since Lehman Brothers collapsed to start the Wall Street mess ...
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
I am bringing midterm numbers that show Democratic votes vs. Republican votes being very lopsided for two reasons:
1. Someone keeps claiming “Everybody agrees that the 2006 midterms were terrible for us, and there Democrats were only up by 3%.” That is simply not correct. Democrats had about a 7% to 8% advantage overall in 2006 when the House and Senate votes are combined. I believe we are finding ourselves still in that downcycle for Republicans. Even GOP strategists allow that we will lose Senate and House seats this cycle, after all.
2. 2006’s voting ID combined with data showing that Democrats have stronger party ID advantages in close states like Ohio and Florida explains why pollsters like Rasmussen weigh the way they do. I believe it is slightly off, but not as much as many here seem to want to believe.
The fact of the matter is that Democrats have a registered voter advantage in the battleground states of Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, etc. A lot of those extra Democrats still vote for a Republican for president in a normal presidential election. This being a down year for Republicans, and with the economy the way it is, that is a lot less likely than it usually is. If the Independent vote is split evenly between McCain and Obama, that is not a good thing. McCain has to make up the Democrative registered voter advantage with a major advantage from Independents.
Nobody should give up, quite the opposite. More bumper stickers, more signs in yards. The 527s need to start investing money into this presidential race, as should the RNC. Florida, Virginia, Ohio are seeing a massive influx of Obama money, TONS of TV ads. McCain’s expenditures are thin in comparison, and he is not getting enough backup from the RNC. The TV ad wars is where the election is won and so far it is not even close. Spend the money NOW. This is the time when opinions harden into final decisions.
On the other hand, if Obama El wins in Virginia, there will be many other states voting for Obama El, too.
I hear what you are saying and it makes sense, but you never know this may be the election in which there are new bellwethers.
I have a hard time believing that Obama will get the votes of many after offending at least a third of the country with his clinging to guns and religion statement. That unveiled who Obama truly is.
Rasmussen was on O’Reilly this morning, and he was all but saying “stick a fork in McCain.” He said most people already believe (according to his poll internals) their taxes will go up under Obama, and most people believe Obama will raise spending, etc. In other words, the attacks have worked in making people believe the things said about Obama are true - yet they will vote for him anyway. Rasmussen posits that McCain has become irrelevant, this is a referendum on Bush.
It is about turnout. In 2006 more Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents turned out to vote to the tune of 9.4% for the Senate and 5.4% for Congress. That is why the pollsters call their models TURNOUT models.
Besides, there is evidence that party identification has changed since 2006:
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/773/fewer-voters-identify-as-republicans
“In 5,566 interviews with registered voters conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press during the first two months of 2008, 36% identify themselves as Democrats, and just 27% as Republicans.
The share of voters who call themselves Republicans has declined by six points since 2004, and represents, on an annualized basis, the lowest percentage of self-identified Republican voters in 16 years of polling by the Center.
The Democratic Party has also built a substantial edge among independent voters. Of the 37% who claim no party identification, 15% lean Democratic, 10% lean Republican, and 12% have no leaning either way.”
and this:
http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/ABCWashPostPartyID.pdf
While I don’t think Rasmussen’s model is 100% accurate as for the exact advantage Democrats have, Scott Rasmussen (who after all is not a flaming liberal by any means) is not making these numbers up, either. They are arrived at via separate surveys to gauge party identification on an ongoing basis:
“The targets are not set arbitrarily. Rather, they are established based upon survey interviews with a separate sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding six weeks. A total of 500 nightly interviews are conducted for a total of 21,000 interviews over the six week period.
This week’s adjustment shows a three-tenths of a point increase in the number of Democrats and an identical decline in the number of Republicans.
For polling data released during the week of October 5-11, 2008, the partisan weighting targets will be 39.3% Democratic, 33.3% Republican, and 27.4% unaffiliated. For the preceding week, September 28-October 4, 2008, the partisan weighting targets were 39.0% Democratic, 33.6% Republican, and 27.4% unaffiliated.”
I don’t believe for a minute that McCain wins blue Pennsylvania in this particular cycle. Why is it so hard to understand that this is a down year for Republicans, made worse by the economy? Just the way the cycle is. It will turn again, but this year, with the economy in the shape it is in, Pennsylvania is not going to turn red. That seems like wishful thinking. McCain has a chance in Minnesota, and perhaps Wisconsin to make up for the losses of New Mexico and Iowa, then we have to hope he holds onto Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, etc.
Rasmussen Election 2004
Final Projection
Bush
50.2%
Kerry
48.5%
Other
1.3%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/election_2004_bush_kerry
“Does anyone remember what the Rasmussen polls showed in 2000 and 2004??? Or...I guess the better question is...who had the most accurate LONG TERM polls???”
Rasmussen was off by 8% in 2000, and almost dead on in 2004.
If these numbers are true (which I doubt) why is Barry in such a panic mode?
Why is it so hard for you to grasp the simple fact that PA is not remotely what you are being told it is? National pundents don’t have a clue what’s going on here. I’ve lived here for 22 years now, this is my 5th presidential election and I’m telling you, PA will not go for Fauxbama.
I am so sick of people who don’t live here, telling me whats going to happen here.
Rendell is in the tank for Hillary, the state democratic machine is not mobilized for Fauxbama, only token efforts are going on. Fauxbama is not getting the blue collar white vote, the same voters that put Hillary over the top of him by 9 points are not going for him, and won’t go for him. He’s behind kerry in every demographic, even straight DEMOCRATIC identifiers, the only exception is black and youth votes, and neither of those make up for his losses elsewhere.
Not only will PA not go for Fauxbama on election day, at least 1 or 2 more rust belt states will not go for him either.
Gore won the state by 205k votes, Kerry by 140k votes, and that was with the democrats having everything completely behind these guys and the state machine. Fauxbama has none of this. He doesn’t have the state machine, he doesn’t have the blue collar vote and he’s got the Pumas and others to deal with. He won’t win PA, it won’t be a blowout for McCain but it will be a win.
This state is a 2-3% dem state when the dems are solidly behind their candidate and working with everything they have, and that’s not what’s happening in PA this cycle at all. If hillary had been the nominee, I’d agree PA turning not likely to happen, but with Fauxbama as the nominee, it’ll turn, he’s lost well more than 3% of the vote that Kerry had.
Well, let’s agree to disagree. This is down year for Republicans. All the polls are showing Obama well ahead. Don’t be surprised if McCain pulls money out of Pennsylvania and closes offices just as he did in Michigan before too long.
We will see soon enough who is right, but I am not buying that in this atmosphere, with this economy, PA is turning red. Kerry won the state in a much better environment for the GOP in the midst of a war crisis and “stay the course” arguments. I am simply not buying this collusion/conspiracy argument that includes every polling firm in existence.
I’m thinking July 2004... still perusing my history for the link.
But what about the Springsteen concert??? *barf*
He has to run a campaign somewhere!
True. I think he needs to spend a lot of money from here on out to shore up Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio, first and foremost. Then go after Minnesota and Wisconsin to try to turn them red. New Mexico and Iowa are gone blue, so McCain can’t afford to lose a single other state, unless he can turn Minnesota or Wisconsin, which gives him a bit more breathing room to defend the states that are now showing as toss-up states.
You can buy what you want or don’t want. I’m on the ground here, and I’m telling you I’ve never seen support for ANY democrat here so lackluster.
Kerry and Gore both won with everything and the kitchen sink behind them, and Fauxbama doesn’t have this. You obviously don’t understand PA politics if you think the state machine, run by Rendell, who’s unapologetically been in the bag for Hillary for day one, is going to do anything for Fauxbama... and without the machine and the white blue collar voters no democrat will win the state.
Had the dems put up a reasonable candidate, I’d tend to agree with you, but they didn’t they put up an empty suit who will sell to rust belt democrats like ice to eskimos.
In less than a month it will all be in the past and we’ll see who was right.
Jay, I just look at the polling done in PA, and, sorry, but that state is dead in the water for us. It would be foolish to waste a lot of resources on that state. I don´t know where you get your evidence from, but it is most likely anecdotal, which is iffy, because it can be quite subjective.
If you are right that the rendell machine is not fully behind Obama, that may be true. But then Obama is just winning that state without the machine, on the economy. I expect McCain to smartly pull out of PA over the next 2 weeks, close his offices, reallocate resources, so we don´t actually have to wait until election day to see who was right on that one. :-)
If I recall correctly they were saying that two weeks (maybe a week) before the 1980 election.
There’s no if about it, the state machine is not behind Fauxbama. He polled even and lost the state by 9 points to Hillary. Out of staters think PA is this big blue vaccuum, they just hear about Philly corruption and unions and democratic registration numbers and have no clue to how this state works or operates.
If you think PA is lost, then based on the latest Rass poll I’d say FLA is DOA for the GOP... don’t believe it for one minute but that poll says Fauxbama’s got FLA state by 7 points. Polls obviously wrong, but that’s what its saying. Same is true for the last few polls about PA.
National polling firms blew it here a few months ago in the primaries and are blowing it here again. Fortunately in a few weeks we’ll see who’s right.
However I put about as much stake in polls claiming PA by 7 or 15 points out of PA as I do for FLA. This state will not go for Fauxbama, the union rank and file don’t support him, the machine isn’t behind him, he hasn’t overcome the issues here that cost him the state by nearly 10 points in the primaries and that was just with registered dems voting.
You can put your faith in what you want to see in the polls, I can tell you on the ground, he’s done for. Won’t be a blowout, but won’t be a win for Fauxbama.
Now you can disagree, and we will disagree, fortunately in a few weeks this will all be over with one way or another. Dems have only held this state with everything and the kitchen sink going for their candidates and even then its only by the slimmest of margins, Fauxbama has none of that.
We are in no worse position than we have been before at this point in time. We have won elections and LANDSLIDES from a worse polling position. We will win this election, I have no doubt in my mind.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8QcpdUtxNQ
How about Obama openly campaigning for his communist cousin Odinga who signed a pact with Muslims to enact Sharia Law if elected and started riots when he lost. Obama campaigned for an openly Anti-American candidate in a foreign country in 2006 at taxpayer expense.
Assuming Obama becomes our lord and master (sick) in Jan 09, Palin will be watched like a hawk by the media when she resumes her duties as AK Gov. How she conducts herself in the next four years as AK Gov will determine if she is Presidential material. On the other hand, she could forgo the Presidency and try to reclaim Ted Stevens’s Senate seat in 2014.
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