Posted on 10/06/2008 6:33:32 AM PDT by CatOwner
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This is the highest level of support ever recorded for Obama and is his largest lead of the year. It also continues a remarkable twenty-five days in a row where the Democrat’s support has never declined by even a single point. The Democratic candidate has gained six full percentage points of support since Lehman Brothers collapsed to start the Wall Street mess ...
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
It appears that the VP debate did nothing to alter the direction of this poll.
Unfortunately in history people don’t vote for the Vice President. I guess it was most watched debate but just for entertainment. This is really bad because soon it will not matter that they ask 39 percent Democrats to 33 percent Republicans because the spread will be so wide that it will not matter. This is seriously getting scary!!!!
Wadda minute. Is Rasmussen bumping up the percentage of Dems in the poll yet again??? He already “adjusted” the poll once in favor of more Dem turnout.
So now he’s predicting 40% Dem to 33% Republican turnout. That ratio has *never* materialized on election day.
And here is some fun with numbers...
40 / 33 = 1.21 ratio
52 / 44 = 1.18 ratio
So Obama’s “lead” is purely a result of Dem oversampling.
Dire straits. 25 days where Obama hasn’t declined? 52% is the highest he’s ever been in any poll. While it is important to attack on Ayers we NEED a strong economic message to counter Obama’s. Really Obama is now winning this by default. Now that the economy is south and it is seen as the GOP’s fault he just mouths “erratic” and “dishonorable” from the podium.
Bill and Hillary will likely give voters another October Surprise that will bring up McCain’s poll points.
He’s using a rolling average of party ID - that he gets from the state by state polling, IIRC - to weight the daily tracking poll...so, he’s weighting a poll with a poll as I understand it. That’s a hot mess waiting to happen. I don’t believe that this is the same methodology he used in the past.
Did all you posters claiming Rasmussen’s polls are worthless claim the same thing when McCain was leading?
If not, then you need to get real.
Rasmussen methodology has not changed - just the results have.
Disparage the results at your own risk. McCain is losing this thing now, maybe not by 8 points, but surely by more than a few.
Admitting the obvious is the first step toward finding a way to change the results.
meanwhile...Palin brings in 20,000 screaming fans...in CALIFORNIA!!!
20,000 people out of a population of 36,457,549. We need to do better than that.
I truly believe public opinion is slowly turning to McCain (ok, Palin really) but like turning a tanker on the ocean it takes time for this to happen and show up in the polls PLUS the oversampling of Dums in the polls is going to make it last longer.
I work all over Northeast Florida from Jacksonville to Orlando and down to Vero Beach and everyone I speak with supports McCain. It is funny though because they are reluctant to say it. It is always seems to be a relief that these people can admit to voting McCain and talk about it with someone.
I believe there is a “Bradley effect” happening. In another thread a few weeks back I discussed how my father was accused of being a racist for supporting McCain. Now he looks for arguments so now he always wears his McCain hat and button, but not everyone is that way. Also, if you have a McCain bumper sticker on your car, chances are your car will get keyed in a parking lot.
WOW, I did not know this. Will you answer a phone when a machine comes on asking you questions? I will certainly not do so.
>> By 2016, or 2012 Obama and ACORN will have so “fixed” the election process that national elections will be more for show than reality.
The will “fix” it, but it will be worth another 2-3% points of bulit-in Dem advantage, hardly more. This makes taking back the White House more difficult, but not impossible.
I keep saying this!!! They may think that because of party i.d. that this is indicative of what the turnout diff will be, it’s so freaking crazy, because it’s NEVER HAPPENED THAT WAY SINCE 1964, the most differential was 4%
FOLKS, PLEASE, DON’T DRINK THE KOOLAID
Me too. I don’t care if the doom and gloomers want to say I’m in denial. I cannot believe Obama getting 52% of the vote. Rasmussen is high.
Many people said the same thing in 2006 and we got crushed!
Sarah Palin has more balls than 95% of Republicans and conservatives combined. And I say that with the utmost respect and admiration. You can bet your ass that she won’t be quitting.
According to Gallup (which, unlike Rasmussen, does publish its internals on at least a weekly basis), this isn't happening. In Gallup, what happened is that some McCain voters switched back to undecided over the last two weeks or so. McCain actually began regaining some of these voters over the weekend, and Gallup indicated yesterday that its polls may soon begin to show a closer race.
Obama actually maxed out his support about two weeks ago. He hasn't actually gained voters even after the Lehman bankruptcy which began the current mess. Instead, McCain lost a net 5 points of Independent voters back to "uundecided." He still led in that group by 9 points (but his lead was 14 points the week before), with a bunch of them (almost half) still undecided.
Bad economic news is what’s fueling Obama’s campaign now. That’s a huge advantage for McCain, or anyone else, to overcome.
DOW is about to dip below 10,000...I seriously cannot believe this. I thought it would rebound after the bailout (I was not for it, but thought Wall Street was).
I've never seen any evidence that Rasmussen is a partisan who cooks the numbers. Either his numbers, and those of a lot of pollsters, are wrong because they're based on faulty underlying models, or we really have a lot of dangerously uninformed voters in this country who are on the verge of sending a radical leftist to the Oval Office. Here's praying the pollsters are wrong.
So maybe we get crushed again. Should we bend over now or fight the bastards right up until election day?
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